Perhaps Trump's shelling of the Fed can't hinder the Fed's actions, but his mouth gun is still very lethal in some cases, at least for the media companies he has mastered. On Friday, September 13th, EST, the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group(DJT), a media company mainly held by Trump, suddenly surged in intraday trading. In less than half an hour, the intraday increase quickly expanded from slightly over 1% to nearly 30%, then quickly fell back, retreated more than half of the increase within 20 minutes, and finally closed up by about 11.8%. More than one media pointed out that the soaring stock price of Trump Media on Friday was attributed to Trump's own statement. When attending an election campaign in California that day, he said that when the lock-up period expires after the stock goes public next Friday, September 20, he "has absolutely no intention of selling" his shares in Trump Media. Trump made it clear: "No, I won't sell it. People think that the reason for the stock price decline is that many people think that I will sell. I can understand this, but I have absolutely no intention of selling it. " Trump Media currently operates a social media network called Truth Social, which is X's rival. On March 26th this year, the company listed on NASDAQ by merging the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) named Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC). Trump holds 114.75 million shares of Trump Media, accounting for 57%. According to the relevant regulations of SPAC listing, the shares of listed companies have a lock-up period of about six months. Some commentators said that Trump Media experienced a bleak decline for seven weeks, and its market value evaporated by billions of dollars, for fear that Trump or other major shareholders might sell a lot of stocks after the lock-up period, thus generating greater selling pressure. Trump's speech on Friday directly responded to this investor's concern. He said: "Many people think that I will sell my stock. I mean, they are worth billions of dollars. But I don't want to sell my stock. I won't sell my stock. I don't need money. " As of the opening of this Friday, the market value of Trump Media shares held by Trump is about 1.85 billion US dollars. As long as he doesn't sell, for every $1 increase in the stock price, his shareholding will increase by about $115 million in name. However, the Trump media has fallen sharply since its listing. Although the stock price rose sharply this Friday, as of Friday's close, it still fell by more than 77% from the intraday high of $79.38 on March 26, and fell by more than 50% from the stock price high set after Trump's assassination on July 15. Some media estimate that if Trump Media's share price falls below $13, Trump's book income since the merger of the company and DWAC will be wiped out. If the stock price falls to $12.88, the value of Trump's stock will be lower than the upper limit of the company's private equity valuation range of $1.478 billion as of December 15 last year. Another media pointed out that Trump Media has always been a Meme stock sought after by retail investors. Although the company's basic business income is meager and unprofitable, its valuation has soared to an alarming level. For some people, this stock is to some extent a representative of Trump's chances of being elected president. The media said that with Trump's return to the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the correlation between this election probability and stock price has collapsed in recent weeks. However, Wall Street has noticed that after the first TV debate between Trump and Harris ended on Tuesday night, Trump's trading enthusiasm further declined, and Trump Media fell by about 10.5% on Wednesday, the lowest closing record since its listing in March. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Investors are actively putting their cash into the global bond market, especially US Treasury bonds. This week's auction of US Treasury bonds shows that investors have strong demand for US Treasury bonds. The assets of American money market funds continued to surge, and recently reached a record high in the week ending Wednesday. El-Erian, president of Queen's College, Cambridge University, believes that the recent price trend of US Treasury bonds is partly due to "the rapid development of OTC funds". "Because of the large amount of cash held off-site, people are worried that if they don't deposit their money in an account with a fixed interest rate now, they will lose interest income in the future. Every time interest rates rise, people will flock. " With the interest rate cut imminent, investors are still willing to hold cash assets. On Thursday, US Treasury bonds fell across the board. Due to the release of the inflation report the day before yesterday, the treasury bond market was turbulent, which quickly attracted investors to buy on dips, leading to a rapid rebound in the bond market. Although it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week's interest rate decision, investors are still willing to hold cash or buy assets similar to cash. Mark Cabana and Katie Craig, bank of America strategists, said: "investors may not turn to risky assets quickly because of interest rate cuts." El-Erian said that a large number of investors bought 10-year US Treasury bonds indirectly in the auction of US$ 39 billion on Wednesday. According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute, as of the week of September 11th, the total assets held by American money market funds reached a record $6.32 trillion. In the past six weeks, this figure has increased by about $188 billion. Outside the United States, investors still have a high demand for long-term treasury bonds. On Tuesday, Italy set a new record by selling 30-year new bonds for 8 billion euros; At the beginning of this month, in Britain, the sales of British government bonds reached 8 billion pounds in 2040, which was the first sale since the New Labour government came to power, setting a record for the highest demand. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

With inflation in Europe falling to the lowest level in three years, the market expects that the European Central Bank will beat the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates first. At present, traders generally expect that the Federal Reserve will start the interest rate cut cycle at its meeting on September 17-18, and the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points again on Thursday. Holger Schmieding, chief economist of Berenberg Bank, said that "the interest rate cut this Thursday should not cause much controversy". Joachim Nagel, governor of the German central bank, who is usually regarded as one of the hawks of the ECB Council, also said: "I will support a rate cut unless there is evidence against it." Previously, the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate cut sharply in June this year after raising interest rates for many years. In July, the European Central Bank voted unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged, but at the same time said that the possibility of cutting interest rates in September was "very great", and its benchmark interest rate is currently 3.75%. Since then, the inflation rate in the euro zone has further declined. In August, the overall inflation rate in the euro zone fell to a three-year low of 2.2%, and the core inflation rate remained at a high of 2.8% due to the rise in service prices. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will also release a new economic forecast, analyzing that it is unlikely that inflation or growth data will be significantly adjusted. However, some economists still believe that the economic growth prospects are grim, and Anatoli Annenkov of Societe Generale points out: "In the recent data, the most worrying thing is that confidence has weakened and the service industry seems to be in an unstable state. Due to the lack of motivation in domestic demand in the second quarter, the weakness of manufacturing may spread and begin to have a greater impact on the originally strong labor market. " At present, the consensus within the European Central Bank tends to be optimistic, and it is believed that the European Central Bank is moving towards the goal of returning the inflation rate to 2%. At the same time, Philip Lane, the chief economist of the European Central Bank, also warned that if interest rates remain high for a long time, inflation may be "long-term" below the target. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Dimon said at the autumn meeting of the Institutional Investor Committee: Dimon is worried that a series of factors driving inflation, such as the increase in deficit and infrastructure expenditure, will continue to put pressure on the US economy, which is still affected by interest rate hikes: In the short term, in the next few years, they are basically inflationary factors. So it's hard to say that we are out of the Woods. I don't think so. Judging from the trend of the US debt market, investors think that Dimon is worrying too much, and the bond market even predicts that inflation may fall below the Fed's target. According to the latest data, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to 2.02%, the lowest since 2021, which means that investors expect the average inflation rate in the next decade to be lower than the Fed's target of 2%. On Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase's share price plunged more than 7% in intraday trading, the worst daily decline in four years, and the president of the bank warned that Wall Street was too optimistic about its performance. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Recently, Michael Wilson, strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates sharply this month, the US stock market may face the risk of further liquidation of the yen carry trade. As of May, Michael Wilson was the biggest short seller of US stocks on Wall Street. He pointed out that if the Fed cuts interest rates by more than 25 basis points, it may make the yen appreciate, thus making yen traders withdraw from American assets after the domestic interest rate rises. This will lead to a repeat of the global stock market crash in early August. The S&P 500 index fell again last week as data showed that the US labor market cooled down. Traders predict that the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month will rise to about 50% at present. At the same time, the market predicts that the interest rate cut in 2024 will be about 115 basis points, which is higher than the previous forecast of 108 basis points. Wilson accurately predicted the decline of US stocks in the summer. He said that the bond market showed that the market thought the Fed was too slow to cut interest rates. Now, the quality of economic data directly affects investors' confidence in the future economy, which in turn affects the stock market. If the economic data continues to be weak, it is difficult for the stock market to rise. Risk warning and exemption clause

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.7%, closing at its biggest weekly decline since March 2023. Share prices of technology companies such as Broadcom and NVIDIA have fallen, dragging down the Nasdaq Composite Index by 2.6%. This so-called most important employment report this year shows that the number of new jobs is lower than expected for the second consecutive month. In addition, there are other recent reports showing that manufacturing and other economic sectors are weak. Nevertheless, the employment report does contain some encouraging data points. For example, the unemployment rate in August dropped from 4.3% in July to 4.2%, which was better than economists expected. Since July 2023, policymakers have kept the benchmark lending rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Before July 2023, in response to the soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve actively took interest rate hikes. The Fed has turned the page of monetary policy, from focusing only on reducing inflation to focusing on supporting employment. In a speech at Notre Dame University, Christopher Waller, the governor of the Federal Reserve, went further and said that if the data showed that it was necessary, he might support a continuous rate cut or a larger rate cut. Austan goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, also said that he hopes to adjust the policy according to the data.

On September 6th, Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg that the Fed has been waiting for a long time to cut interest rates, and the rise in real interest rate (the difference between bond yield and inflation) shows that the Fed is lagging behind in easing monetary policy. Paulson's expectation of interest rate is different from Howard Marx's. On Thursday, September 5th, Max, co-chairman of Oak Capital, said that the current "emergency" to curb inflation has ended, and the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, but the interest rate will not fall below 3%. In a speech in new york on Thursday, Trump proposed that the United States should establish a sovereign wealth fund. In response, Paulson responded in an interview, saying that the United States should establish a sovereign wealth fund that exceeds Norway's $1.7 trillion cash pool: Paulson said that national savings is a symbol of strength, and wealth funds can encourage this strength. He believes that Trump can make up for some gaps through tariffs and cutting unnecessary expenses. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

In the August 2024 ranking of Chinese offshore bond underwriters, ShangGu Asia Asset Management (overall score of 14.898) rose to 41st place with its outstanding performance, surpassing JPMorgan Chase & Co. (45th), Deutsche Bank (47th), Bank of America Securities (49th) and Buckley Bank (54th).

On Tuesday, the yield of US bonds plummeted across the board. The yield of 2-year US bonds dropped by 7 basis points, and the 2-year US bonds have risen for four consecutive months, setting a record for the longest consecutive increase since 2021. Since the end of April, driven by the expected interest rate cut, the overall rate of return on US debt has exceeded 6%. Ed Al-Hussainy, interest rate strategist at Columbia Thread Needle Investments, said: "The problem we are facing now is that the job market may stabilize or deteriorate rapidly. This is the focus of debate in the second half of this year. " It is worth noting that in the August ISM manufacturing sub-index released overnight, the employment index has obviously picked up. According to the analysis, this may indicate that the non-farm payrolls report this Friday will be stronger than expected. However, at present, the relevant data of the job market are "mixed", and the latest data reported by the World Federation of Large Enterprises shows that the number of jobs is not "sufficient", while the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time every week has remained stable in the past few months. "In view of the fact that NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) seems unlikely to declare an economic recession in the next 3-4 months, it is hard to see that a rate cut of more than 200 basis points is reasonable by looking at the data calmly." In addition, the issuance of corporate bonds tends to increase after summer, so the bond yield will show a seasonal upward trend in September, which increases the supply pressure on the market. Risk warning and exemption clause

Following SF Holdings, SF Real Estate Trust, Kerry Logistics and SF City, Wang Wei, the head of SF, is about to welcome the fifth listed company in his life. On August 30th, HIVE BOX Holding Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "HIVE BOX") officially submitted the form to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, intending to list on the main board, with Huatai International as the exclusive sponsor. Such a company, which is mainly engaged in express delivery cabinet business and fell into the crisis of "withdrawing cabinets" at the beginning of the year, now plans to go public. What is even more surprising is that this "big brother of express cabinet" who has suffered losses for many years has turned losses into profits this year after seizing the business opportunity of "reverse logistics". The whole express delivery industry has entered a new round of capital operation peak. SF Holdings, which belongs to SF Department, is seeking to go public in Hong Kong for the second time. After the first delivery failed, it submitted the form to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again in June. The express delivery industry will start a new round of competition, and even HIVE BOX, who is doing terminal business, cannot help being involved. Under the external challenges, such as fee disputes and increasingly fierce competition, HIVE BOX undoubtedly hopes to enrich its scale through listing and financing, so as to further enhance its competitive advantage. Gong Fuzhao, an expert in the express delivery industry and chief consultant of Shuangyi Consulting, told Wall Street that HIVE BOX's last financing was in 2021. As a continuous investment project, express cabinet needs long-term financial support because of its long investment time and slow return. However, in the context of the slow recovery of Hong Kong stocks, HIVE BOX must tell a more attractive business story in order to win the favor of the capital market. HIVE BOX was founded in 2015. At that time, e-commerce was booming, and the express delivery business surged. Terminal delivery became a bottleneck restricting logistics efficiency. In order to solve this problem, logistics giants including SF Express, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda and Prologis announced that they would invest 500 million yuan to establish HIVE BOX. Among them, SF holds 35%, Shentong, Zhongtong and Yunda each hold 20%, and Prologis holds 5%. However, in 2018, "Tongda Department" all withdrew from HIVE BOX, and some insiders speculated that this was mainly related to the rookie's involvement in the smart express cabinet business. In this market competition, the "Tongda Department" deeply bound with Ali must choose a rookie. HIVE BOX's last financing was in January 2021. According to SF Express, HIVE BOX will complete 400 million US dollars of strategic financing this time, and its post-investment valuation is about 3.4 billion US dollars, equivalent to over 24 billion RMB. According to HIVE BOX's prospectus, Wang Wei and his wholly-owned Mingde Holdings are now the controlling shareholders of HIVE BOX, holding 48.45% of the shares through concerted action with other shareholders. Backed by SF Express and Wang Wei, HIVE BOX has accelerated the expansion of the express cabinet market in recent years. In 2020, HIVE BOX was reorganized and merged with China Post Express, which ranked second in the market share at that time. As the world's largest network operator of intelligent express cabinets, by May 31, 2024, HIVE BOX had operated 330,000 groups of intelligent express cabinets, with a total of about 29.9 million outlets, covering about 209,000 communities in 31 provinces of China. Even so, the express cabinet business is not very profitable. Due to the huge investment in building express cabinets, HIVE BOX has been in a loss state. From 2021 to 2023, it lost 2.071 billion yuan, 1.166 billion yuan and 542 million yuan respectively, with a total loss of about 3.78 billion yuan. On the eve of listing, HIVE BOX turned a profit, with a profit of 71.6 million yuan in the first five months of this year. In this regard, HIVE BOX said that the improvement in profitability is mainly due to the significant increase in the profitability of express terminal delivery services, the rapid growth of consumer intelligent delivery services and value-added services, and the improvement in operational efficiency. Under the background that the terminal delivery service of express delivery falls into the bottleneck of income growth, the intelligent delivery service of consumers is the most beautiful growth story that HIVE BOX can tell today. The so-called consumer intelligent delivery service is the service that consumers send to the counter. The parcel volume of this part of business in HIVE BOX is growing rapidly, which is about 114 million pieces in 2021 and 233 million pieces in 2023. In terms of revenue, in 2022 and 2023, consumers' intelligent delivery services brought HIVE BOX 300 million yuan and 1.02 billion yuan respectively, which increased by 109% to 690 million yuan year-on-year in the first five months of this year, accounting for 36.3% of the total revenue, almost catching up with express terminal delivery services, which accounted for about 40.8% of the total revenue. The reason why consumers' intelligent delivery services can usher in a substantial growth is mainly because consumers' demand for return and exchange has increased. HIVE BOX pointed out that in recent years, e-commerce has ushered in the vigorous development of the mode of live broadcast and short-sighted goods, and the trend of impromptu consumption boom has greatly promoted the soaring sales of goods, and correspondingly promoted the demand for return and exchange, which has opened up a broad business opportunity for the "reverse logistics" market. According to the consulting data, from 2019 to 2023, the reverse parts of e-commerce in China grew rapidly with a compound annual growth rate of 22.7%, and will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 20.7% in the next five years, while the forward parts of e-commerce are only about 11.2%. HIVE BOX seized the great opportunity of "returning goods". At the same time, it said that it has successfully built and cooperated with the leading e-commerce platform, and seamlessly integrated the e-commerce return and exchange comprehensive service with the return and exchange process, making it an indispensable return and exchange option. Even so, Gong Fuzhao pointed out that the sustainability of HIVE BOX's new business and how HIVE BOX can prevent the main business of express cabinets from shrinking further under the condition of increasingly dense post stations will become its next challenge. In order to find new growth points of performance, HIVE BOX began to take advantage of its own community scene in 2022 to enter the care service and home life service. It is worth mentioning that under the new tide of China enterprises going out to sea, HIVE BOX is not absent, and in 2022, he has expanded the smart cabinet network overseas. According to the disclosure in the prospectus, as of May 31, 2024, HIVE BOX has deployed 200 smart cabinets in Thailand, and the scale is still very small. In order to keep the top position in the fierce market competition, sinking the market and overseas markets will be the focus of HIVE BOX's future efforts. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.