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View detailsUBS: China's technology stocks are now
UBS said that China's technology industry is now considered "attractive" at a time when more and more customers are interested in diversifying their dollar assets. On May 14th, Hu Yifan, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in an interview with the media that the bank has just upgraded China's technology rating to "attractive", and it is expected that the AI ecosystem and its related industries will definitely be the future direction of China. Hu Yifan mentioned that investors are optimistic about China mainly for the following reasons: AI and its application prospect, the stability of RMB and even the chance of appreciation (it is predicted that the exchange rate will be 7.02 at the end of this year and 7.01 next year). In addition, the valuation of China market is still lower than that of the United States, and it has little correlation with the American market. "Therefore, whether from the perspective of the industry itself or from the perspective of asset allocation, I think China assets are now more and more attractive to investors." Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-05-14 -
View detailsGoldman Sachs significantly delayed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations! Postpone from July to December
On Monday, Goldman Sachs significantly delayed the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates until December this year. Earlier, on the day of non-agricultural day and before the Fed's policy meeting in May, Goldman Sachs expected the Fed to take the first interest rate cut in July. According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, this high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States have made substantial progress, and the bilateral tariff level has been greatly reduced. The United States has cancelled a total of 91% of additional tariffs, and China has correspondingly cancelled 91% of counter-tariffs; The United States suspended the implementation of 24% of "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of counter-tariffs. Goldman Sachs recently said: In view of these developments, as well as the remarkable relaxation of the financial situation in the past month, we have raised the forecast of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 in the United States by 0.5 percentage point to 1%, and lowered the probability of economic recession in the next 12 months to 35%. We have lowered our forecast for the peak inflation of the core PCE from the previous 3.8% to 3.6%. Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency", quoted Goldman Sachs' statement on the X platform that it would postpone interest rate cuts until December this year: Earlier in the day, Citigroup delayed the Fed's interest rate cut by one month, from June to July. On Monday, Goldman Sachs also said, "The drastic reduction of US tariffs on China should have a limited impact on the overall effective tariff rate, which will only slightly reduce the current effective tariff rate of the United States by less than 2 percentage points. Considering this downward adjustment, the breadth and level of overall US tariffs are still much higher than the market's expectations at the beginning of this year. " Goldman Sachs' pessimistic outlook on the Fed's interest rate cut is not uncommon on Wall Street. At present, options traders are building hedge positions to guard against the risk that the Fed may not loosen monetary policy this year. One of the growing positions is that the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in 2025. Late in new york on Monday, traders expected the Fed to cut interest rates only twice this year, and the yield of short-term US bonds rose by more than 10 basis points: The yield of two-year US bonds rose by 10.47 basis points to 3.9956%, and the intraday trading range was 3.9077%-4.0166%, reaching a new high at 19:02 Beijing time. The yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 8.45 basis points to 4.4630%, which was on the rise all day, and the overall trading was in the range of 4.3981%-3.4669%. At present, the US stock bond market is divided: since Trump announced the suspension of the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs", the US stock market has basically recovered its decline, but the bond market is far from "healing". Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-05-13 -
View detailsThe bond market is expected to reverse! Option traders increase their bets on the possibility that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.
The market finally began to accept Powell's message that the Fed was in no hurry to start lowering interest rates. After Powell reiterated the Fed's "wait-and-see" stance on monetary policy last week, traders actively increased their bets that the benchmark lending rate would fall by less than 75 basis points in 2025, and the first rate cut is not expected to begin until July. What is even more shocking is that options traders are building up hedge positions to guard against the risk that the Fed may not loosen monetary policy this year. One of the growing positions is that the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in 2025. Before the latest employment data showed that recruitment was still strong in April, the swap contract showed that it was very likely to cut interest rates as early as next month. In the next few weeks, the trend of the US economy and inflation data will play a key role in the success or failure of this bet. Wall street expects differences to intensify! Fed faces a dilemma between inflation and employment. Wall Street's forecast of the rate cut this year ranges from 0 to 125 basis points, which highlights the high uncertainty of the market on the Fed's policy path. A number of large bank economists predict that there will be two or three interest rate cuts this year, starting from July or September. Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Fixed Income, which manages more than $850 billion in assets, pointed out: "The bond market is accepting that inflation will be higher than originally expected, which complicates investors' belief that the Fed will step in and cut interest rates." Sonal Desai, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton's fixed income, made a more decisive judgment: "The market is pricing the interest rate cut too much. Unless there is a recession, the Fed will only cut interest rates by another 25 basis points this year. " Powell said that as policymakers seek to know more about tariff policy, the risk of rising inflation and increasing unemployment rate has increased due to Trump's comprehensive taxation. This makes the Fed face a dilemma. Michael Krautzberger, chief investment officer of global fixed income of Allianz Global Investors, believes that the central bank will eventually give priority to supporting the labor market, as long as it is convinced that the price increase is mainly caused by tariffs. Although the inflation surge may be short-lived, the Fed will be alert to the possible long-term impact on employment and growth. David Rogal, portfolio manager of BlackRock's basic fixed income team, added: "Powell specifically said that it is difficult to take pre-action, which I think is the main inspiration. Under this special combination of tariff policies and its potential impact on inflation and growth, the Fed needs to see more information. " Investment strategy shift: medium-term bonds are favored Under this uncertainty, institutional investors are adjusting their strategies. John Madziyire, senior portfolio manager of Vanguard, said that his company prefers to hold 5-to 7-year US Treasury bonds "because the Fed obviously will not actively cut interest rates". At the same time, investors are also paying close attention to the consumer price index data released on Tuesday, which may lead the market to change its view again. According to estimates compiled by Bloomberg, the consumer price index in April is expected to rebound from March, with a monthly increase of 0.3%. Madziyire pointed out: "At present, the most frustrating thing is that the employment and inflation data we obtained are actually lagging behind." He added that data including the impact of tariffs may not be available until July. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-05-12 -
View detailsBypassing the dollar has become a trend in Asia.
The process of dollarization has further intensified? A movement to bypass the dollar trade in Asia is on the rise. On May 9, according to Bloomberg News, banks and brokers in Asia have found that the demand for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar is rising because trade tensions have intensified the sense of urgency to get rid of the dollar for many years. The report pointed out that there are more and more requests from enterprises and investors for transactions that bypass the US dollar, including hedging transactions that avoid the US dollar, involving currencies such as RMB, Hong Kong dollar, UAE dirham and euro. At the same time, the demand for RMB loans is also growing, and an Indonesian bank is setting up RMB loan business. Trump's attitude towards trade and his repeated criticism of the Federal Reserve have aggravated people's concerns that the dominant position of the US dollar in the global economy is facing the biggest threat in decades. Oliver Harvey, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, and others wrote in a recent report: "Considering the resilience of the US dollar, it seems that it needs a truly epoch-making change in the international environment to replace it. But there are more and more signs that the risk of this change is accumulating. " Bypassing the dollar is becoming increasingly popular. In traditional foreign exchange transactions, even if funds are transferred between two local currencies, the vast majority will use the US dollar as an intermediary. For example, if an Egyptian company wants to obtain the Philippine peso, it usually converts its currency into US dollars and then uses these US dollars to buy the peso. But now, more and more companies are looking for trading strategies that bypass the dollar. According to the report, according to a person from a Singapore commodity trading company, financial institutions from Europe and other regions are increasingly introducing RMB derivatives that bypass the US dollar. According to several sources, the closer commercial ties between Chinese mainland, Indonesia and the Gulf region are driving the demand for non-dollar hedging. A trader of a financial institution in Singapore said that European automakers are pushing up the demand for euro-renminbi hedging. In Indonesia, a foreign bank plans to set up a special team this year to meet the growing demand of local customers for Indonesian rupee-RMB transactions. Is Asia still selling dollar assets? Wall Street has previously mentioned that when trade protectionism tears the global supply chain, Asian exporting countries have doubts about the traditional model of "making a steady profit without losing money" and gradually adjust the investment direction of foreign exchange reserves. The "hegemony" of the US dollar seems to be shaking. Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner of Gavekal Research, said: "This situation is similar to the' reversal of the Asian crisis'. Since the Asian financial crisis, there has been a huge amount of savings in Asia, and funds often flow to American debt, but now the mode of investing in American assets is no longer stable. In the past, it was a stable transaction, but now the situation has changed. " Parisha Saimbi, Asia-Pacific interest rate and foreign exchange strategist at BNP Paribas, said: "The idea of capital return is becoming a reality, because investors and exporters are either closing their positions or hedging in a hurry. No matter what form it takes, it shows that the support of the US dollar is changing and going down. I think this shows that' de-dollarization' is taking action." Once Asian capital withdraws on a large scale, the dollar may face an "avalanche" selling pressure. On May 7th, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire of Eurizon SLJ Capital said in a report that Asian exporters and investors may have accumulated "extremely large" US dollar reserves over the years, which expanded the trade surplus between Asia and the United States. As the Trump-led trade war intensifies, some Asian investors may repatriate a large amount of funds, which may trigger a large-scale outflow of funds from the US dollar. Stephen Jen warned that the dollar could face an "avalanche" selling pressure of $2.5 trillion as Asian countries sell their dollars. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-05-09 -
View detailsFaced with the "wait-and-see" tariff choice, the Fed's dilemma: cutting interest rates too early is afraid of being forced to raise interest rates, and cutting interest rates more vigorously if it is too late.
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and tariff risks put it in a dilemma. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to suspend interest rate cuts again, and Powell reiterated his position of not rushing to act after the meeting. Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "New Fed News Agency", published the latest report, saying that the Fed is facing a difficult choice and needs to decide whether to pay more attention to the risk of rising inflation or the risk of rising unemployment. Timiraos pointed out that this makes the Fed face more uncertainties-cutting interest rates too early may lead to out-of-control inflation expectations, and waiting too long may lead to economic recession. Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warned that cutting interest rates too quickly now would increase the risk that the Fed would have to reverse its policy and raise interest rates in a few months. Last year, many of Trump's allies criticized that the Fed's excessive interest rate cut was stimulating more lasting inflation risks. "This is very ironic. Frankly speaking, for people inside or close to the government, they criticize the Fed's inflation rate is too high, so that they also think that tariff shocks will not have any impact on inflation. This is contradictory." George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at Japan's largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, expressed another concern, arguing that the Fed's continued inaction is equivalent to "passive austerity" and may require greater interest rate cuts to save the economy: "Waiting until July or September to cut interest rates may cause the Fed to cut interest rates even more, such as half a percentage point." "That wait too long. You may lose the opportunity to really save the economy. " "Wait and see" has become the new mantra of the Fed. According to the data in the article, Powell used the expression "wait and see" 11 times at the press conference on Wednesday, which clearly conveyed the current policy stance of the Fed. "We don't think there is a need for hasty action. We think it's appropriate to be patient, "he said." Of course, we have records that we can act quickly at the right time. " Timiraos pointed out that after the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates in June has dropped, and it is widely expected that the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of this year. The article quoted William English, a former senior adviser to the Federal Reserve, as saying: "They are in a difficult situation. If I were present, I would advise them to stay put for the time being. " Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-05-08 -
View detailsHKEx optimizes IPO system, consolidates financial position, and facilitates the listing of special lines for enterprises.
Photo: HKEx further facilitates specialized technology companies and biotechnology companies to apply for listing, so as to consolidate Hong Kong's position as a financial center. Hong Kong has continuously optimized its listing system, consolidated its position as an international financial center, and accelerated the development of the science and technology innovation ecosystem. The Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange jointly announced the launch of the "Science-Enterprise Special Line" yesterday to further facilitate specialized technology companies and biotechnology companies to apply for listing, and allow them to choose to submit listing applications in a confidential manner. The Chief Executive, Lee Ka Chiu John, said that the "Science-Enterprise Special Line" will arrange a dedicated team to communicate with potential listing applicants as soon as possible to provide assistance for the listing work, so as to strengthen the understanding of the applicability of relevant rules to the specific business of the enterprise and the evaluation and approval rules, and make preliminary communication on different important issues. The SAR Government hopes that the application process of enterprises will be smoother and more scientific enterprises will come to Hong Kong for listing. It is understood that the "Science-Enterprise Special Line", led by a professional team with relevant experience, will contact potential applicants, gain a deeper understanding of the company's business and help them understand the requirements of the Listing Rules, as well as provide guidance on listing qualifications and suitability. Applicants can discuss specific issues with HKEx and seek preliminary guidance. Provide pre-listing guidance for special personnel to answer questions. Katherine Ng Kit-shuen, director of the listing of HKEx, said that the "Science-Enterprise Special Line" provides special guidance for specialized technology companies and biotechnology companies before submitting their listing applications, and answers key questions for them in the early stage of preparing for listing, so as to better understand and meet the relevant listing requirements and prepare for listing more efficiently. Support the development of innovative enterprises through the "special line for science and enterprises" to further enhance Hong Kong's market competitiveness. The reporter noticed that the website of HKEx's "Science-Enterprise Special Line" is now online. Potential applicants/professional consultants can fill in the "Science-Enterprise Special Line-Inquiry Form" and contact the Listing Section to inquire about some rare and specific matters. Dai Lin, executive director of the Corporate Finance Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out that this move ensures that the listing system can adapt to changes in the global market and protect investors steadily enough. Chen Zhihua, president of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Association, said that enterprises have to pay the fees in the process of listing when they submit their applications through sponsors, especially "the money is spent but the listing fails". Although enterprises planning to apply for listing can submit a "Pre-IPO Enquiry" to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in official documents through lawyers, the process is complicated. It is estimated that after the launch of the "Science-Enterprise Special Line", relevant enterprises will have more confidence in applying for listing in Hong Kong. Quasi-confidential form of table delivery to prevent technology leakage Chen Zhihua believes that specialized technology companies and biotechnology companies are generally in the early stage of development, and some cutting-edge technologies do not want to be disclosed too early, but after submitting the listing application, they need to disclose business details in the prospectus, which has certain risks to business development. If you can choose to submit your listing application in a confidential form, you can attract more high-quality enterprises to list in Hong Kong. According to the previous arrangement, after most enterprises intending to list in Hong Kong submitted their applications, the relevant prospectus documents would be uploaded to the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In addition, since the current application for listing in the form of the same share with different rights, in addition to meeting the "market value requirements" (the market value must reach 40 billion yuan, or the market value must reach 10 billion yuan and the latest annual income of 1 billion yuan), it also needs to be confirmed as an innovative industrial company by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. However, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has updated the Guide for New Listing Applicants, and the specialized technology companies that fully comply with Chapter 18C and the biotechnology companies that fully comply with Chapter 18A are adopting different voting structures. People in the industry welcomed this. Guo Sizhi, vice chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association, pointed out that the trading atmosphere in Hong Kong's new stock market has become more and more prosperous this year. I believe that many high-quality enterprises also plan to list in Hong Kong, but specialized technology companies and biotechnology companies may adopt different voting rights structures. After the HKEx updates the Guide for New Listing Applicants, it is believed that the worries of these potential listing applicants can be alleviated. Content of special line for science and enterprise Responsible team: led by a professional team with relevant experience (that is, examining and approving listing applications in Chapters 18C and 18A of the Main Board Listing Rules). Provide guidance: provide guidance for applicants on listing qualifications and suitability, including core product requirements, whether to accept other biotechnology products, qualifications and independence of senior investors, acceptable areas of specialized technology industries, etc. Application submission: You can choose to submit a listing application in a confidential form to avoid premature or long-term disclosure of the company's operating strategy, proprietary technology or listing plan.
2025-05-07 -
View detailsThe Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission have contacted some relevant enterprises on the "intention of returning Chinese stocks"
People's Financial News On April 29, the Securities Times reporter learned exclusively that in response to the latest changes in the world, the HKEx and the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission have made preparations according to the instructions of the SAR government and have contacted some related enterprises. If the "China Stock Exchange" that has not been listed in the Hong Kong market wants to return, it will provide appropriate guidance and assistance for its listing in Hong Kong. The specific measures will be adjusted according to the specific situation, and must meet the actual needs. In addition, in order to meet the latest economic trends and corporate needs and attract more companies from different regions to list in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are promoting a comprehensive review of the listing system, including examining the listing requirements and continuing responsibilities after listing; Review listing regulations and arrangements to improve the approval process; And study and optimize the dual main listing and secondary listing thresholds. The review will further facilitate the listing of emerging industrial companies and overseas enterprises in Hong Kong. A spokesman for the Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau told reporters that the overseas listed "China Stock Exchange" has always intended to return to the Hong Kong market. To meet the relevant needs, the HKEx has launched a series of listing system reforms in recent years, including a comprehensive review of the relevant listing mechanism in view of the financing needs of "China Stock Exchange" and other overseas issuers, so as to further facilitate the listing of "China Stock Exchange" in Hong Kong. Since the reform of the listing system in 2018, as of the end of March 2025, 33 issuers of "China Stock Exchange" have returned to Hong Kong. In addition, regarding the fluctuations in the global market caused by the indiscriminate tariffs imposed by the United States, a spokesman for the Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau said that up to now, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission has not found any behavior that may cause systemic risks or seriously affect financial stability, and there has been no excessive leverage or concentration of positions. In the stock market and stock derivatives market, there was no significant increase in positions, and there was no concentration or accumulation of short positions. At present, the Hong Kong SAR government and regulatory agencies have established an "all-weather, linkage and cross-market" real-time monitoring mechanism to closely monitor market changes, including preventing risks that may suddenly emerge, especially when market confidence is fragile. If the market is abnormal, there are enough and diversified tools to deal with it to prevent possible systemic risks. Hong Kong will maintain a high degree of vigilance, be well prepared, and strengthen the monitoring, prediction and response to the development of the situation. Source: Company E, original title: "HKEx and Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission have contacted some related enterprises on the" intention of returning Chinese stocks ". Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-04-29 -
View detailsAnt's "Southern Expedition": Over 2.8 billion bids for the brokers of "nightclub tycoon"
The quiet local brokerage license in Hong Kong suddenly became hot again. On the evening of April 25th, Bright Smart Securities Finance (code: 01428.HK, hereinafter referred to as Bright Smart Securities), a local listed company in Hong Kong, and Wealth Ines and Prosperity Holding Limited, a subsidiary of Ant Holdings, jointly announced that the two parties had reached a share purchase agreement for the latter to acquire 50.55% of the shares of the former. At the same time, the latter made a cash offer to other shareholders in Bright Smart Securities, and the purchase price was HK$ 3.28 per share, which was 7.54% higher than the latest price before the suspension of trading in Bright Smart Securities on April 23rd. Bright Smart Securities was founded by Ye Maolin, a former "nightclub tycoon" and financial genius in Hong Kong. It is a leading brokerage financial institution in Hong Kong with over 60 billion customer assets. Once the acquisition is completed, Bright Smart Securities will become a holding subsidiary of Ant. The possible "chemical reaction" in the future after Bright Smart Securities's integration into the big system and strategy of ants has attracted people's attention. Bright Smart Securities "changed hands" As a direct result of the above-mentioned share purchase agreement, Bright Smart Securities changed hands. Before this merger, Bright Smart Securities was absolutely controlled by Ye Maolin and his new Changming. After the breakthrough, Ye Maolin held a total of 50.55% of Yaocai's shares (data released by the Stock Exchange). After this transaction, there is a high probability that all the shares held by Ye Maolin will be held by ants. The company indirectly controlled by Ant became the absolute majority shareholder of Bright Smart Securities. At the same time, according to the relevant acquisition laws and regulations, Ant's companies triggered the obligation to make a tender offer for all shareholders, which led to the announcement of 3.28 Hong Kong dollars per share to make a tender offer to all shareholders. Why Bright Smart Securities? Bright Smart Securities acquired by Ant was founded by Ye Maolin in 1995, and the company was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2010. Its core business includes securities brokerage, margin financing, commodity and futures brokerage and spot financial transactions. As a "leader" among local securities firms in Hong Kong, Bright Smart Securities holds the No.1, No.2, No.4, No.5, No.6 and No.9 licenses of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission (commonly referred to as "full-service licenses"), and its business covers securities trading, futures contract consultation, asset management and other fields. For the acquirer, it will take at least 2-3 years to set up a new institution and collect these licenses, and the acquisition will greatly reduce the time cost. In addition, Ye Maolin, the boss of Bright Smart Securities, is quite flexible in thinking, and Yaocai is also famous for his flexible operation and excellent financial technology in the Hong Kong market. In the history, the company took the lead in reducing the commission rate, and took the lead in opening night market service and seven-day service. In addition, by the end of last year, the total number of clients of the company was close to 580,000, and the client assets were close to 60.5 billion yuan, making it one of the best local brokers in Hong Kong. For ants, Yao Cai is indeed one of the better choices if they want to buy a local financial license in Hong Kong. According to the research report of soochow securities Sun Ting and Wu Xinshu, the acquisition of Yao by Ant will bring the following benefits: Further complete international expansion: improve the global financial service network by controlling Hong Kong securities firms. Technology Empowers Traditional Finance: Promote digital transformation and strengthen the strategy of "technology+wealth management" with the help of Yaocai's license and customer resources. Pursuing synergy: Ant Wealth cooperates with over 150 asset management institutions, which can form cross-selling with Yaocai's securities business. The challenges are obvious. However, such an acquisition is not without challenges and risks. From the historical case, there are still many challenges and potential risk factors. First, Bright Smart Securities's business tends to stagnate in recent years. In the past four complete financial years, the fluctuation of revenue and net profit has obviously declined (see the figure below). It remains to be seen whether ants can "turn the tide" and pull the company's business out of the "quagmire" after the acquisition. Secondly, Yaocai, as a local brokerage company founded by Ye Maolin, a Hong Kong business wizard, has been deeply branded by his personal and local financial institutions. As the "Big Mac" of domestic financial technology service companies, Ant also has a strong and consistent organization. Whether the two companies can successfully complete the integration after the merger in the future, how much Yao Cai's unique business and team can retain after this round of mergers and acquisitions is also an external point of view. Third, the acquisition of local securities institutions in Hong Kong, and on this basis, the establishment of international business flagship institutions, this capital arrangement in the past decade has been replicated by a number of large content brokers. However, from the actual situation, there are very few excellent operating results. As an independent subsidiary, if the operation business is tightly tied to the parent company, the business development momentum and efficiency are often affected. If the independence is too strong and the incentive target is too high, it will often be exposed to more risky businesses under the promotion of the management team. This lesson has appeared more than once in mainland brokerage institutions. The founder experienced innovation. In this acquisition, Ye Maolin, the creator of Bright Smart Securities, has attracted much attention. He is a "wizard" in Hong Kong's business circles and has a far-reaching influence on this financial institution. According to local reports, when he was young, he was said to have worked in a plastic flower factory in Li Ka-shing. After dropping out of high school, he became a peddler. Since then, he has moved to many industries, speculating in gold, and also turning into a clothing quota, earning the first bucket of gold in his life. In the early 1990s, Ye Maolin saw the limited development prospects of ready-made garments, and set up Bright Smart Securities in 1992 to enter the securities industry. During this period, it experienced a brilliant bull market of Hong Kong stocks in the 1990s, and at the end of the 1990s, it also encountered the financial crisis in Southeast Asia and the avalanche of Hong Kong stocks. In 2003, the relevant departments in Hong Kong lifted the minimum commission limit in the securities industry, and Ye Maolin seized the opportunity to greatly reduce the company's commission from 0.25%, thus breaking out of the New Deal encirclement and eventually becoming the leader of local securities firms. Entering this century, Ye Maolin is getting older, but its business is getting more and more complicated. He once owned a number of well-known "nightclubs" in Hong Kong, and also packaged and listed this night market economy. In recent years, he has also made frequent public voices. Ye Maolin is now in its seventies, and the Hong Kong stock market has also performed generally in recent years. It seems logical for Ye Maolin to "sell" his company and hand it over to a "newcomer" for management. Early stock price change Another detail that can't be missed is that before the official announcement of this merger, Bright Smart Securities's share price showed a very obvious change. On April 23, 2024, Bright Smart Securities rose sharply at the opening, and rose repeatedly in intraday trading (below), and finally applied for suspension temporarily. Just before the suspension, the share price of the stock rose by more than 10% in more than an hour. Moreover, from the K-line of the day, the turnover of the stock was significantly enlarged more than one hour before the suspension of trading that day, even exceeding all the single-day turnover since the beginning of the year. Who "grabbed the order" to buy during this period? Is there any inside information leaked in advance? How to guarantee the information fairness in the whole acquisition process? It is also a detail worthy of attention. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-04-28 -
View detailsNext week, the two technology giants with the biggest tariff impact will speak to the market.
The tech giant's earnings week under Trump's tariff is coming, and the "tariff victims" finally have to respond positively to the possible impact of this storm. Next week, when technology giants such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Spotify announce their financial reports one after another, investors will pay close attention to the potential tariff attacks on their supply chains and products imported from overseas. According to the comprehensive analysis, Amazon and Apple may be the two technology giants that have been hit hardest in the tariff storm. Amazon will announce its earnings report after the US stock market closes next Thursday. Not only may its advertising business be hit, but its heavy reliance on Asian suppliers and retailers' market income will also be hit by Trump tariffs. Apple will also announce its earnings report after the US stock market closes next Thursday. Although the company may benefit from consumers' panic buying in advance in the short term, with the full implementation of tariffs, the dual pressures of rising supply chain costs and declining purchasing power of consumers will gradually emerge. Happiness and worry in the eyes of technology giants under the tariff storm The technology giants have smelled the tariff storm. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, indirectly mentioned the impact of tariffs in a recent earnings conference call: "We obviously can't be immune to the macro environment. But we don't want to speculate on the potential impact, just note that the change of the minimum exemption will obviously cause slight resistance to our advertising business in 2025, mainly from retailers in the Asia-Pacific region. " Tesla CEO Musk is outspoken: "When the profit margin is still low, tariffs are a severe test for companies." Despite his close relationship with Trump, Musk expressed his support for "free trade and tariff reduction". But more notably, Tesla refused to update the guidelines for the rest of 2025, citing the uncertainty of the impact of trade policies on the automobile and energy supply chain. Intel reported revenue that exceeded expectations, but gave disappointing revenue guidance for the second quarter. David Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer of Intel, disclosed: "We believe that the revenue in the first quarter benefited from customers' purchasing in advance in response to potential tariffs, although it is difficult to quantify the extent." These statements may be a signal for Apple: Many Wall Street analysts predict that iPhone manufacturers may report more than expected revenue due to accelerating demand, but at the cost of fewer mobile phone upgrades in the coming months. William McDermott, CEO of ServiceNow, said: "Yes, CEOs have noticed that the global economy is in a state of mobility. No, they are not stagnant. " ServiceNow not only reported the financial data of the first quarter that exceeded expectations, but also provided guidance on subscription income that was stronger than expected. This may bode well for Microsoft, which will announce its earnings next week, because the latter has a huge software business through Office series applications. Gregory Peters, co-CEO of Netflix, said: "We obviously pay close attention to consumer sentiment and the broader economic trend. However, based on what we have seen in the actual operation of the business at present, there is nothing really noteworthy. " This may indicate that consumers are still willing to spend money on entertainment, which may be good news for subscription-based media platforms such as Spotify. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-04-27 -
View detailsNew Fed News Agency: Trump makes the next Fed chairman "harder to do"
After Trump repeatedly "shelled" Powell, the Fed may not escape the loss of independence? On Thursday, April 24th, Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed News Agency", issued a document saying that after repeatedly publicly accusing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Trump's tough stance of intervening in the Fed may weaken investors' confidence in the next Fed chairman, even though he "changed his face" and indicated that he had no intention of firing him. The article further pointed out that the market's concern is that even if Trump spared Powell, the damage has already been done. No matter who the next chairman is, the independence of the Fed will be in doubt, thus weakening the effectiveness of future monetary policy. Why is the independence of the Federal Reserve so important? The article states that since the Fed successfully tamed the "scourge" of high inflation in the 1980s, its independence from the White House has always been regarded as the existence of a "ballast stone". Why? Because of an independent central bank, its interest rate policy is usually considered to be more objective, more professional and thus more effective. Simply put, if the market believes that the Fed's decisions are based on economic data and long-term goals, rather than short-term political considerations, then these decisions will be easier to guide market expectations and stabilize the economy. On the other hand, if the chairman of the Federal Reserve is like a subordinate who listens to the president's instructions at any time, then every interest rate adjustment may be interpreted as a political operation, and the market reaction will become chaotic and unpredictable. The article states that it is precisely in recognition of this point that since President Clinton's time, most successive American presidents have adopted the attitude of "non-intervention" in the specific operations of the Federal Reserve, because they understand that pushing the central bank into a corner may be counterproductive in the end and it will be more difficult to achieve economic goals. Trump triggered market concerns about the "shadow chairman" However, Trump broke this "tacit understanding". Trump publicly attacked Powell again in April 2025, demanding an immediate interest rate cut. Although he later said that he had "no intention" to fire Powell-which may itself be a "catch-up" after a negative reaction in the market-this capricious pressure has caused harm. The article mentioned that the core concern of the market is that this kind of open belittling and pressure will bring Powell's successor an indelible "original sin". The article quoted John Silvia, president of Dynamic Economic Strategy Consulting and former chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee, as saying: "You can't vilify a person like this, and then expect the market to think that your chosen successor will have amazing credibility." David Wilcox, an economist at Bloomberg Economic Research Institute and Peterson Institute for International Economics, also believes that Trump's "threatening posture" towards the Fed cannot be ignored and "will definitely leave a shadow of suspicion for the next chairman". This kind of worry is not groundless. For example, the article pointed out that in February this year, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr handed over the position of vice chairman of banking supervision after Trump administration officials threatened to dismiss him. Subsequently, Trump nominated Michelle Bowman, the Fed governor he appointed in 2018, for this position. According to the article, in the eyes of financial market participants, an "overwhelming possibility" is that in order to get the nomination, the next chairman "probably has given sufficient reasons to make Trump believe that he will be satisfied with the new monetary policy", which is different from the Powell era that made Trump dissatisfied. And if the market generally thinks so, the problem will be big. Timiraos further pointed out that the chairman of the Federal Reserve's speech and judgment on the economic prospects are all aimed at guiding market expectations. Once the market thinks that the "boss" behind the Fed is giving orders, the president's speech may directly affect the interest rate trend, which will undoubtedly overhead the Fed's own decision-making authority. It is not easy for the president to "control" the Fed. However, in order to "reshape" the power of the Fed, Trump is still subject to multiple constraints. First of all, the results of president's intervention in the Federal Reserve in history are often unsatisfactory. The article mentioned that during Nixon's presidency, he privately pressured arthur burns, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, to relax monetary policy before the 1972 general election. Burns did so, and as a result, the American economy was mired in high inflation throughout the 1970s. Secondly, the article also points out that the Fed is not monolithic, and the system itself also has checks and balances. According to the existing regulations, the power of the chairman of the Federal Reserve depends largely on whether he/she can build consensus in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) composed of 12 regional Fed presidents and 6 directors. When the interest rate is decided, the chairman himself has only one vote, and there is no guarantee that every member will vote exactly according to his intention. Jason Furman, a former senior economic adviser to the Obama administration, analyzed that: "There is a limit to what Trump can do to the chairman of the Federal Reserve appointed by himself. The more extreme the person he chooses, the harder it is to get FOMC's approval. " "Unless the president has the right to fire the Fed governors, there is an extremely powerful mechanism of checks and balances built into this system ... The Committee will not submit to a chairman who is completely political." Who will take over as chairman of the baseball team? Where does independence go? The article also mentions the candidates who may succeed Powell in the future, including Kevin Warsh, a former Bush administration adviser and former director of the Federal Reserve, and Kevin Hassett, former director of the White House National Economic Council. Interestingly, Walsh said in a speech in 2010 that he believed that "any attempt to improperly influence the Fed's policies will be strongly countered by Fed officials and market participants" and that "the only prestige that a central bank governor should pursue only exists in history books." So, how will the next chairman of the Federal Reserve respond to this situation? Can they resist the pressure and maintain the independence of the central bank? The article pointed out that Waller, the current governor of the Federal Reserve, stressed in an interview that the key lies in the next chairman. "The key is whether the next chairman will inherit the tradition of the Fed's independence and formulate policies in a non-political way ... no matter who the next chairman is." Waller also said that Trump's criticism will not affect how officials work: "If you don't like being criticized, don't take the job." Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
2025-04-25