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Strong demand from the central bank, Goldman Sachs raised the target price of gold, with a sword of $3,100!

There has been a sharp correction in the price of gold these days. However, Wall Street's bullish sentiment towards gold is still strong, and Goldman Sachs has even raised its year-end target price for gold from the original $3,000 to $3,100 per ounce. Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven pointed out in their latest report that strong central bank demand and gold ETF capital inflows supported their expectations. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has hit a new high for seven consecutive weeks, continuing the upward trend of last year. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the continuous rise in gold prices is mainly driven by three factors: the increase in demand for gold purchases by the central bank, the continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the recent increase in investors' concerns about US President Trump's destructive tariff policy. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average monthly purchase of gold by the central bank may reach 50 tons, far exceeding previous expectations. And: "If the uncertainty of economic policies, including tariff policies, persists, the increase in speculative positions may push the price of gold to soar to $3,300 per ounce." This level means that the price of gold will increase by 26% during the year. In addition, it is estimated that in December 2024 alone, global central banks bought 108 tons of gold. Analysts believe that inflation concerns and rising financial risks may push central banks around the world to buy more gold, especially those holding a large amount of US Treasury bonds. In addition to the central bank's demand, Goldman Sachs also expects that the Fed's two interest rate cuts will "gradually increase" the gold ETF positions. However, the price of gold has recently adjusted back. Up to now, the spot price of gold has hovered around $2,913 per ounce, having exceeded $2,942 in the previous week, setting a record high, but Goldman Sachs is still firmly bullish.

2025-02-18
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The intervention started? Trump's chief economic adviser will meet with Powell regularly.

As the inflationary pressure in the United States continues, the relationship between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve has once again become the focus. On Sunday, local time, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, revealed in an interview that he will meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regularly to discuss the US economic situation and provide a channel for the President to convey his opinions. This practice has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Hassett said that this practice is to restore the practice of Trump's first term and will not infringe on the independence of the Fed. He stressed: Powell is an independent man, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is respected. The point is that the president's opinion should also be heard. We will discuss our views on the current situation and listen to his opinions. The relationship between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve is in a delicate balance. Regular meetings provide communication channels for both sides, but under the pressure of inflation and policy differences, potential conflicts still exist. With the CPI exceeding expectations in January, the differences between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve may intensify. Nouriel Roubini, a famous economist, warned that even if the Fed only postponed the interest rate cut, it might have a "head-on conflict" with Trump. Trump recently once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, believing that this would be in line with its tariff policy. However, Powell reiterated at a congressional hearing last week that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates and will maintain a restrictive policy stance. Wall Street is skeptical about Trump's policy agenda. Roubini warned that the policies proposed by the Trump administration, including tariffs, may aggravate the current inflationary pressure. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's analysis, also warned that consumers will "bear the burden". David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said that tariffs are a key downside risk to the earnings growth of US stocks. It is predicted that every 5% increase in the US tariff rate will reduce the profit forecast of the S&P 500 index by about 1% to 2% in 2025. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-17
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UBS gave a benchmarking list: Cambrian vs. NVIDIA, Xiaomi vs. Tesla, SMIC vs. TSMC ...

CAMBRIAN and NVIDIA "played tricks", Xiaomi and Ideal Benchmarking Tesla, SMIC and TSMC "beat" ... UBS gave a benchmarking list of Chinese and American technology stocks in the latest research report. With the release of R1 model of DeepSeek, the development of AI in China has once again become the focus of investors' attention. According to the report of James Wang team of UBS on 12th, since the beginning of the year, AI-related China listed stocks have risen by 15% on average, outperforming MSCI China Index by 9%. Considering the current abundant liquidity and low interest rate, UBS believes that there are opportunities for valuation revaluation of AI-related stocks. UBS said that the valuation of Cambrian was three times higher than that of NVIDIA, Xiaomi and Ideal were 80% and 90% lower than Tesla respectively, and SMIC was 15% lower than TSMC. The report also mentioned that the development of the AI industry usually promotes the valuation of related stocks. In the past 4G, 5G and cloud computing times, the performance of related stocks was better than the market by 50% to 100%, and this rebound usually lasted for one to two years. UBS believes that the current AI-related market rebound may not be more than half, especially for software stocks, and there is still much room for valuation improvement in the future. AI enterprise benchmarking: the competitiveness of China enterprises In this report, UBS listed a series of benchmarks of AI-related enterprises in detail, and made a valuation comparison. This list covers hardware, software, Internet, automobiles and other fields, and some of the comparisons are particularly striking: CAMBRIAN: As a leading AI chip manufacturer in China, CAMBRIAN has been compared with NVIDIA in UBS's benchmarking list. The valuation of Cambrian is 312% higher than that of NVIDIA. Xiaomi: Xiaomi is developing rapidly in the fields of intelligent hardware and AI. In UBS's list, Xiaomi is compared with Tesla. Although Xiaomi's valuation is 80% lower than Tesla's, its potential in intelligent hardware and AI ecology should not be underestimated. LI: As one of the representatives of new energy vehicles in China, LI is in comparison with Tesla. LI's valuation is 90% lower than Tesla's, which shows the market's expectation for its future development. SMIC: SMIC is on the list of UBS against TSMC. The valuation of SMIC is 15% lower than that of TSMC, and its status and technological progress have become an important force in the field of AI chip manufacturing. The detailed chart is as follows: Source: UBS, the sinicization of Wall Street. The outlet of a new wave of science and technology The report pointed out that although AI accounts for a limited proportion of most companies' revenue, the rapid development and application of AI technology will promote the valuation of related companies. UBS believes that infrastructure providers (such as IDC and hardware manufacturers) will gain revenue from AI applications at the earliest, because AI users (such as cloud service providers) are eager to build an ecosystem, even at the expense of profitability. UBS is optimistic about software stocks and believes that it is expected to usher in a significant revaluation in the next few years: "According to the experience of 2019-2020 (cloud computing) and 2023 (AI), the valuation revaluation of software companies is the most significant, and the P/S ratio has increased by 4-14 times during the period. Compared with the broader market, the current trading price of software stocks is still 53% lower than the peak in early 2021 and 38% lower than the peak in 2023. " In addition, UBS also mentioned that the development of AI technology will promote changes in many industries, including the Internet, finance, medical care, automobiles and other fields. For example, AI technology will help Internet companies optimize advertising technology and enhance the user experience; Financial institutions will reduce costs and improve efficiency through AI technology; The medical industry will use AI technology to accelerate drug research and development and improve diagnostic accuracy. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-14
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Nomura: The market accepted that GB200 was lower than expected, and the supply chain turned to GB300 in the second half of the year.

On Wednesday morning, US President Trump posted a comment on the social platform Truth Social, writing: Interest rates should be lowered, which will complement the upcoming tariff policy! ! ! Let's rock and roll, America! ! ! It is not clear whether he refers to the short-term benchmark interest rate of the Federal Reserve, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, the housing mortgage interest rates, the auto loan interest rate, or all the above interest rates. Shortly after Trump's comments were published, the United States released January CPI data, and the inflation data in that month exceeded expectations across the board. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI rose to 3%; The chain increased by 0.5%, the largest increase since August 2023, and accelerated for the seventh consecutive month; Core CPI accelerated to 0.4%. In response to the latest CPI data, Trump posted again, mentioning "BIDEN INFLATION UP" and attacking this higher-than-expected inflation report as "Biden inflation". Trump's two comments on interest rates and inflation on Wednesday were about an hour apart. According to the analysis, Trump's move is a hope to avoid potential political dangers at the beginning of his second term. The CPI data in January included 12 days during Trump's tenure. In last year's US presidential campaign, Trump frequently focused on the inflation and cost of living during Biden's administration, and at the same time paid attention to the immigration issue. These are the negative views of the American public on Biden's handling of economic issues. Multi-response Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said that whether the Fed participates or not, we will solve the inflation problem in the United States. Interest rates are expected to go down. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters in Washington late Wednesday: "US President Trump wants interest rates to fall. I think the situation is much worse than anyone expected, because unfortunately, the last government did not disclose the real situation of the economy. " Warren, a well-known Democratic Senator in the United States, said in a statement: "President Trump proposed to reduce the cost of working families during his campaign, but today's inflation data highlights his failure to fulfill this promise." In response to Trump's latest post, Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency", said: Some of Trump's economic advisers have recently expressed different views that the Fed needs to completely control inflation before lowering interest rates. The US Treasury Department said last week that "inflation needs to be further eased to be consistent with the Fed's goals." Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the hearing of the US Congress this week. He said on Tuesday that, given the economic resilience, the Fed did not need to cut interest rates in a hurry. In response to the CPI data released on Wednesday, he said that it is close to but has not yet achieved the long-term inflation target of 2%. In addition, he also mentioned that the Fed may adjust interest rates due to tariffs. For Trump's latest call for interest rate cuts, the market does not pay the bill. After the CPI data is released, traders will adjust the next Fed rate cut from September this year to December. In contrast, before the CPI report was released, traders tended to cut interest rates twice this year. The Trump team mentioned the timeline of interest rate cuts. The CNBC article pointed out that Trump's latest tweet reflects the White House's change in the narrative of monetary policy: Shortly after Trump took office, he asked for an "immediate" interest rate cut, although he did not directly control the power of the Fed. A few days later, he said that the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in late January was correct. A few days ago, the new US Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with the media that the Trump administration paid more attention to the yield of 10-year US bonds than the short-term benchmark interest rate of the Federal Reserve in reducing borrowing costs. When asked if Trump wanted to cut interest rates, Besant said: "President Trump and I are both focused on the 10-year US debt, and he did not pressure the Fed to cut interest rates." However, Trump's comments on Wednesday showed that he has returned to the position of putting pressure on the Fed and demanding easing policies. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-13
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60 countries signed the Paris AI Declaration, but the United States and Britain refused

On February 11th, The Paper reported that at the closing ceremony of the AI Summit in Paris, 60 countries, including China, France, Germany and India, agreed to sign the Paris Declaration on Artificial Intelligence, aiming at ensuring that AI technology is "safe, reliable and trustworthy" and promising to develop this technology in an "open", "inclusive" and "ethical" way. However, the United States and Britain refused to sign this declaration. U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned that Europe should not adopt an "overly cautious" AI regulatory policy: "The Trump administration will ensure that the United States establishes the most powerful AI system, using chips designed and manufactured in the United States ... The United States wants to cooperate with all of you ... But to create this trust, we need an international regulatory framework to promote the development of AI technology, not to bind it." Vance also added: "We believe that over-regulation of the AI industry may stifle the development of this industry, just when it is just starting." A spokesman for the British government said that the wording in this statement was "too restrictive" and "failed to provide enough practical and clear measures for global governance and did not fully solve the problems concerning national security". According to people familiar with the matter quoted by the media, the United States is dissatisfied with multilateralism in the statement, which makes "strengthening international cooperation and promoting international governance coordination" a priority. Analysts pointed out that the tough stance of the United States shows that the United States is making every effort to maintain its leading position in AI, including chip manufacturing and chat bots. At the same time, Europe is also trying to gain a foothold in the AI field to reduce its dependence on the United States. It is reported that at the two-day summit hosted by French President Macron, European leaders and companies announced investment plans of about 200 billion euros, mainly for data centers and computing clusters. In addition, DeepSeek, which broke the "myth of computing power" in China, also caused a heated discussion at the summit because of its low cost, low energy consumption and open source design, and was praised by many people in the industry as an excellent case of stimulating artificial intelligence innovation. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-12
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This time, domestic investors really want to grab the

Mainland investors' enthusiasm for the Hong Kong stock market is unprecedented. Yesterday, the turnover through Hong Kong Stock Connect accounted for nearly half of the total turnover of Hong Kong stocks, and the net purchase reached HK$ 16.5 billion, the highest level since the beginning of December. Dong Yi and Sheng Wang, analysts of Shenwan Hongyuan, said in the report "Hong Kong Stock Connect Funds: From Quantitative Change to Qualitative Change-One of the New Frameworks of Hong Kong Stock Connect Research: Dismantling Hong Kong Stock Connect Funds & Updating &ERP Model" that in recent years, the proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds in the market turnover has been rising. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds in the market turnover has been 20%-25% in most trading days, and the impact of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds on the market cannot be ignored. Moreover, historically, the valuation and trend of Hong Kong stocks have been greatly influenced by the spread between China and the United States, but since the fourth quarter of 2023, the influence of this factor has begun to decline, and even continued to deviate. In this regard, Shen Wanhongyuan optimized the Hang Seng Index ERP model to reflect the changing trend of investor structure and avoid the influence of short-term extreme value on the model: The market risk-free interest rate since the opening of the Hong Kong Stock Connect on November 17, 2014 was optimized to the weighted yield of 10-year US bonds and China bonds, in which the weight of the yield of 10-year medium-term bonds was the moving average of the proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds in the total turnover of the market in the past 10 trading days. According to the report, as of February 7, 2025, the implied ERP of Hang Seng Index optimized by capital cost is 6.73%, which is still far from the extremely optimistic level. At present, the allocation ratio of overseas investors to China is at a low level, and the current capital inflow in the Hong Kong stock market mainly comes from passive funds such as ETF. In addition, the proportion of short selling in the market has begun to decrease, and the turnover rate of the market has also rebounded, which means that the trading activities in the market are increasing. Therefore, Shen Wanhongyuan believes that there is still room for further improvement in the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market. If there is a FOMO effect, then the stock market's rally may be even more rapid. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-11
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After Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Asia team also lowered its AI server delivery forecast this year.

Following Morgan Stanley's expectation that the cloud spending cycle may peak this year, and the GB200 delivery forecast this year has been greatly lowered, the Goldman Sachs Asia team also lowered its AI server delivery forecast this year. However, the difference is that the Goldman Sachs Asia team believes that this does not mean that the industry has reached the peak of the cycle, but that the market is undergoing structural changes. The short-term adjustment is more affected by factors such as product upgrades, and it will usher in better performance in 2026. Recently, Goldman Sachs Asia team wrote in the report that they have updated the global server market scale, and some AI server production plans will be postponed from 2025 to 2026. This is mainly influenced by GB200, GB300 product iteration and DeepSeek, which leads to the redistribution of budgets of different AI servers and the adjustment of production bases. Goldman Sachs Asia team predicts that 31,000 rack-level AI servers will be delivered in 2025 (with 72-GPU equivalent calculation), down from the previous expectation of 38,000. In 2026, it is estimated that 66,000 rack-level AI servers will be delivered, which is higher than the previous expectation of 58,000. Specifically, looking at the performance in 2025, the above team predicts that the shipment of ODM rack-level AI servers will fluctuate in 2025: the delivery volume is small in the first quarter, climbing in the second quarter, product iteration in the third quarter, and rising again in the fourth quarter. Looking at the AI training server market, the above team expects that the production plan will also be postponed to 2026 (calculated by 8-GPU equivalence): In 2025/26, the shipments of AI training servers are expected to increase by 42%/42% year-on-year, reaching 716,000 units/1.016 million units respectively. The revenue of AI training server is expected to increase by 46%/39% in 2025/26, reaching $179 billion/$248 billion respectively. Among them, the value growth in 2025 is faster than the shipment, mainly due to the new product form and the unit price increase brought by GPU upgrade. Regarding the revenue outlook of AI server market, Goldman Sachs Asia team expects: The revenue of AI training server is expected to increase by 46%/39% year-on-year in 2025/26, reaching $179 billion/$248 billion respectively. The revenue of AI inference server is expected to increase by 132%/14% in 2025/26, reaching $18 billion/$21 billion respectively. Shipments of general-purpose servers are expected to increase by 5%/4% year-on-year in 2025/26. The demand recovery in this market is mainly driven by the server replacement cycle, and its market value is expected to increase by 9%/6% in the same period. It is worth mentioning that the Goldman Sachs Asia team believes that with the AI application scenario and landing, the AI reasoning server will usher in a higher popularity in 2025. The recently released low-cost DeepSeek R1 model further reduces the cost of large-scale model training and reasoning, so the shipment of AI reasoning servers is expected to increase by 58%/24% in 2025/26, and the market scale will increase by 132%/14%. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-10
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Financial circles have rushed to take the DeepSeek Express, and brokers, banks and funds have been

The popular DeepSeek quickly entered all walks of life after the start of the Lunar New Year. Especially the financial industry that is willing to try new things. According to information from the industry, Guotai Junan, Guangfa Securities, Industrial Securities, Zhongtai Securities, Guoyuan Securities, Guojin Securities, Hua Fu Securities and many other brokers, as well as Huitianfu Fund, are actively deploying the localization of DeepSeek model. At the same time, as of the latest news, a number of public offerings in the industry have also announced the completion of the privatization deployment of the DeepSeek model, including Huitianfu, Fuguo, Cathay Pacific, Central Europe, Jing Shun Great Wall, Nuoan, Yongying, Boss and many other head fund companies. In addition, a number of banks, including Jiangsu Bank, have expressed their intention to introduce and apply DeepSeek. Brokerage: Plan to expand AI into core business areas. Securities companies with outstanding technology and innovation awareness are the "early adopters" of this round of deployment of DeepSeek. Take Guojin Securities as an example. It is reported that the company has completed the localization deployment test of DeepSeek. The test aims to apply it to many scenarios such as information retrieval, document processing, industry research and market analysis, and plans to further expand into core business areas such as intelligent services, risk management and investment analysis in the future, so as to comprehensively promote the intelligent upgrade of the company's business and create long-term value for investors. It is reported that the stage objectives of Guojin Securities include: installing DeepSeek and mainstream market models on the company's AI office assistants to empower employees and improve work efficiency; Explore applications in data processing, product production, customer service and other fields to improve the quality of products and services; On the basis of exploring the large-scale model scene in the early stage, we will further explore the efficiency of using artificial intelligence technology and the potential of controlling risks and reducing costs. Fund: DeepSeek will empower investment research, sales, risk control and customer service. Public Offering of Fund's goal of introducing DeepSeek is clear and empowering. Take Huitianfu Fund as an example. Recently, the company announced that it has completed the privatization deployment of DeepSeek series of open source models and will apply them to core business scenarios such as investment research, product sales, risk control compliance and customer service. This move marks another important step for Huitianfu in the field of financial technology. By introducing cutting-edge AI technology to continuously deepen digital transformation, Huitianfu will also provide investors with more accurate, efficient and temperature-sensitive smart financial services. Hui Tianfu said that from the intelligent assistance of investment research, to the personalized experience improvement of customer service, to the precise management of risk control, the big model technology is deeply integrated into all business links of the company. Taking e-commerce as an example, the company's mutual fund department has set up an AI team codenamed "deepfund" to comprehensively improve the operational efficiency and user experience of fund e-commerce by using the AI big model and promote the intelligent development of e-commerce sales business. Banks: introducing AI to reshape the financial service model Banks with massive customers and data resources have a clear goal of landing DeepSeek. It is reported that Jiangsu Bank has successfully localized and deployed the fine-tuned DeepSeek-VL2 multimodal model and the lightweight DeepSeek-R1 reasoning model based on the "Smart Little Su" big language model service platform, and applied them to the scenarios of intelligent contract quality inspection and automated valuation reconciliation, respectively. Through the mining and analysis of massive financial data, the financial service model has been reshaped, achieving a double breakthrough in the accuracy of financial semantic understanding and business efficiency, and injecting strong impetus into business development. According to Jiangsu Bank, the company continues to explore the application of big model technology in financial scenarios, and has leading innovative practices in the fields of intelligent customer service, smart office, data governance, risk prevention and control, etc., and has landed in nearly 20 scenarios, releasing a lot of productivity for customer service agents, account managers, and R&D operation and maintenance personnel. Explore application boundaries Taken together, financial institutions are more inclined to apply AI technology in customer service, sales, research, risk control and other links, and there are more successful cases. But at the same time, how to find the advantages and disadvantages of AI application and define its application boundary is also something that the industry needs to explore. As DeepSeek mentioned in the answer to the industry question "Why do you think you are not reliable as a financial advisor": DeepSeek has obvious defects in data processing, technical stability, compliance and humanized service, which makes it difficult to be qualified as a professional financial consultant. Investors need to be alert to the potential risks under their technical aura, especially in data security, decision-making deviation and illegal service correlation. For complex financial needs, it is still recommended to combine the manual services of licensed consultants to balance efficiency and risk control. In the future, how to achieve better balance and risk control must be a problem that financial institutions need to consider. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-08
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DeepSeek and AI burn money war-the curse of the winner!

Are AI leaders stepping into the "winner's curse"? On February 6, Jim Reid, head of global macro research at Deutsche Bank, and his team released a report to discuss the current situation of "burning money" in the AI industry. Deutsche Bank said that recently, with the acceleration of AI capital expenditure, technology giants are in a dilemma: The cost of losing the competition may be great, but the consequences of winning it may be even worse-the winner of huge investment may face the prospect of capital exhaustion. In the past few weeks, the investment commitments announced by the four major technology companies show that this year's AI capital expenditure may increase by about 50%, reaching about 300 billion US dollars. Microsoft said that it will invest about 80 billion US dollars, Meta plans to spend 65 billion US dollars, Amazon will spend more than 75 billion US dollars, and Google also plans to spend about 75 billion US dollars, far exceeding market expectations. Naturally, the market began to worry, are AI leading enterprises experiencing a "winner's curse" similar to the telecom industry in 2000, the financial crisis in 2008, or the railway industry at the end of the 19th century? For example, in 2000, the British 3G spectrum license bid for life and death. At that time, after 150 rounds of bidding, the five companies paid a total of 22.5 billion pounds, while the government's initial revenue forecast was only 1 billion to 3 billion pounds. It is not difficult to imagine that these high-debt winners were dragged down, and the high bidding expenses made them unable to build network infrastructure. In contrast, Japan issued 3G licenses almost free of charge, and finally surpassed Britain in technology. Perhaps, as Chuck Prince, CEO of Citigroup, famously said at the beginning of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007: "When the music is still playing, you have to stand up and dance, but when the liquidity dries up, the situation becomes complicated." Can the stock price keep up with the capital expenditure? Deutsche Bank said that up to now, the share prices of technology giants have kept pace with the growth of expenditure. However, investors are worried about DeepSeek's bright performance and the more AI capital expenditure guidelines of technology giants this year, and the market anxiety is intensifying. Specifically, Alphabet's share price fell by 7.5% after the earnings report was released, as investors digested its high AI capital expenditure plan. Microsoft's share price also fell by 6.2% after the earnings report was released. Meta is an exception, and its share price rose by 1.9%, because the company demonstrated that AI directly promoted advertising revenue growth by one fifth, and claimed that Meta AI has now become the number one AI assistant in the world. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-07
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In sharp contrast to Powell's statement, senior Fed officials: It would be a mistake to ignore tariffs.

Senior Fed officials warned that it was wrong to underestimate the impact of Trump's tariffs. On Wednesday, local time, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago branch of the Federal Reserve, warned that it would be a "mistake" to underestimate the potential impact of Trump's planned tariffs, and it would be "dangerous" for the Fed to follow "pure economic theory" and ignore supply shocks such as tariffs. Goolsbee stressed that the United States is currently facing a series of supply chain challenges, including strikes, natural disasters and "large-scale tariff threats and potential trade friction escalation." The "overwhelming" lesson brought by the epidemic is that Fed officials should not ignore supply-side shocks, which have been the most important drivers of inflation in the past five years. Goolsbee said in his speech: "Although these threats are not as large as during the epidemic, it would be a mistake to ignore their potential consequences." As a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Goolsbee's statement is in sharp contrast with the cautious attitude of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell last week. Powell said earlier that policymakers need to "wait and see" the impact of tariffs before deciding how to influence interest rate decisions. Earlier, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, the two largest trading partners of the United States. On Monday afternoon, Trump announced that he would postpone the tariff collection for 30 days. At present, most private economists expect that Trump's tariff plan will push up inflation. Since last autumn, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates this year has dropped sharply, because the price growth rate is still higher than the central bank's target. In addition, Trump also said that he would communicate with Powell on a regular basis, hoping that the cost of borrowing in the United States would drop "substantially". However, US Treasury Secretary Bertrand denied that Trump was putting pressure on the Federal Reserve. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

2025-02-06
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