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Financial Bulletin

The US stock market is closed, the Pan European stock index has hit a new two-year high, Germany and France have temporarily halted their gains, and crude oil has hit a new high for three consecutive months

Release Time:2024-02-20

Monday is President's Day holiday and the US financial markets are closed. Blue chip stocks AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk in the medical sector led the way in supporting the continued rise of the Pan European stock index, while mining stocks led the decline and technology stocks fell, all of which suppressed the overall upward trend due to the decline of various basic metals such as iron ore and copper.

Among commodities, international crude oil continues to hit a three-month high. Commentary suggests that geopolitical tensions have overwhelmed market concerns about demand and continue to fuel oil prices. On Monday, the tense situation in the Red Sea escalated, with Hussain militants claiming to attack two American ships and the British cargo ship "Ruby" completely sinking.

German stocks have fallen to record highs, with Novo Nordisk hitting a new historical high in five consecutive days

The Pan European stock index rose for four consecutive trading days. The European Stoxx 600 index closed up nearly 0.2%, hitting its closing high since January 5, 2022 for three consecutive trading days. The performance of major European stock indices varies. German and Italian stocks, which have been rising for three consecutive days, have fallen back. German stocks are temporarily breaking away from the historical closing high they set for two consecutive days, while the Spanish stock index has fallen for two consecutive days. French stocks have closed slightly higher and roughly flat, breaking new historical closing highs for three consecutive trading days, while British stocks have risen for four consecutive days.

Among the various sectors of Stoke 600, medical revenue rose by over 0.9%, benefiting from the approval of its star anti-cancer drug Tagriso combined with chemotherapy to treat lung cancer by the US FDA. UK listed pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca rose by 3.2%, supporting the rise of the UK stock market. In addition, Danish listed European pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk rose by 0.8%, reaching a new closing high for five consecutive trading days, helping the Danish stock index reach a new closing high for four consecutive days; The underlying resources of mining stocks led the decline by about 1%, while the technology sector fell by more than 0.8%. Among its constituent stocks, ASML, the highest market value chip stock in Europe listed in the Netherlands, closed 1.7% lower, taking back all gains from last Friday and failing to continue approaching the historical closing high set on Monday.

Among other stocks, after announcing a new stock repurchase plan of 1.57 billion euros and increasing dividends by about 50%, Spain's largest bank Santander rose 1.8%, supporting a rebound in the Spanish stock index; After announcing plans to open an ammunition factory locally with Ukrainian partners, German military enterprise Rheinmetall rose 4.1%; JD.com stated that Curries, a UK listed electronics retailer, surged 36.4% after evaluating a possible acquisition offer.

The yield of 10-year German bonds is close to a high of over two months

When the US market was closed, the prices of European treasury bond bonds that had fallen for two days in a row showed different performances. The yield of British bonds rose and fell, while the yield of 10-year German bonds kept rising. By the end of the bond market, the yield of the benchmark 10-year British treasury bond was about 4.11%, roughly unchanged from the level of last Friday, approaching 4.13% when it hit a new high, which was still far from the high since December 4, 2023 when it hit 4.17% after the US CPI was announced last Tuesday; The yield of the 2-year UK bond was approximately 4.60%, a decrease of about 1 basis point within the day, breaking the daily high and breaking through 4.67%, not approaching the high since the end of November 2023 that broke through 4.71% last Tuesday.

By the end of the bond market, the yield of benchmark 10-year German treasury bond was about 2.41%, up about 1 basis point within the day, close to the high since December 1 when the US PPI broke 2.42% after the announcement on Friday; The yield of the 2-year German bond is about 2.81%, which is basically the same as last Friday's level, and is not far from the high since December 1st, when the US PPI was released last Friday and was close to a refresh of 2.84%.

The US dollar index stabilized, and the offshore RMB rose above 7.21 during trading, but fell by over 100 points at one point

The ICE US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the prices of a basket of six major currencies including the US dollar against the euro, hit a new low of 104.14 before European stock trading, falling more than 0.1% during the day. It continued to rebound, and continued to rise after turning higher in the previous US stock trading session. In the early morning session, the US stock market was close to a new high of 104.40 to 104.373, and rose nearly 0.1% during the day. It has not yet approached the high since November 14, 2023, which was hit by 105.00 on Wednesday.

By the usual Monday closing of the US stock market, the US dollar index was above 104.20, with a slight decline during the day and two consecutive trading days of slight decline, failing to completely reverse the continuous decline trend of last Wednesday and Thursday; The Bloomberg US dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell slightly and stabilized after stopping two consecutive declines last Friday.

Among non US currencies, the Japanese yen, which fell last Friday, rebounded slightly. After falling below 150.00 in the early Asian market, the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell below 149.90, with a intraday decline of over 0.2%. The majority of the decline gradually narrowed during European and American trading hours; The euro against the US dollar was close to a daily low of 1.0760 during the usual morning session of the US stock market, falling more than 0.1% within the day, and then slightly rising, not close to the low since November 14, 2023 where it broke below 1.0700 last Wednesday; The pound against the US dollar has fallen below a daily low of 1.2590 since the European stock market turned lower, and is still far from the low since December 23rd, which broke through 1.2520 on Monday, February 5th.

The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) rose to 7.2040 against the US dollar in the early trading session of the Asian market. After reaching a new intraday high since February 9th last Friday, it hit a new intraday high on February 8th and continued to decline. European stocks fell from 7.21 in the early trading session and then fell to 7.2162, down 122 points from their daily high, before rebounding. At 5:59 am Beijing time on February 20th, the offshore RMB/USD was at 7.2114 yuan, up 14 points from last Friday's late trading in New York, for four consecutive trading days.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new daily high of $52400 before the European stock market, but then fluctuated and fell back. As usual, the US stock market fell below $52000 to below $51700 by midday, falling more than $800 or more than 1% from its daily high.

After falling more than 1% in the oil market, it turned higher for three consecutive days and rose for two consecutive days, reaching a new high for three months

International crude oil futures rose during the trading session. When European stocks hit a daily low in the morning, US WTI crude oil fell below $78.70, down nearly 0.7% for the day, Brent crude oil fell below $82.60, down 1.1% for the day, and the usual US stock market continued to rise after turning up. When the US stock market hit a daily high in the morning, US oil rose above $79.70, up 0.7% for the day, and crude oil rose to $83.60, up nearly 0.2% for the day.

In the end, Brent's April crude oil futures rose by $0.09, or nearly 0.11%, to $83.56 per barrel, rising for three consecutive trading days and hitting a high since November 6, 2023 for two consecutive trading days. If the US oil company, which had no closing price on Monday due to holidays, maintains its upward trend, it will also rise for three consecutive days on Tuesday, and is expected to continue to hit a new closing high since November 6, 2023.

Lunxi fell 2%, Luncopper fell to a two-week high, Lunaluminum fell three times in a row, and gold continued to rise

London base metal futures mostly fell on Monday. Lunxi, which led the decline, fell by about 2% for four consecutive trading days, breaking the one week low set last Friday. Lun lead fell by about 1%, bidding farewell to the over a week high set by three consecutive days of gains. Lun Aluminum fell nearly 1%, falling for three consecutive days and hitting a low since late January for two consecutive days. Last Friday, London Copper, which rose more than 2% and led the way, fell to a two-day high since February 1st, but failed to close close close to $8500. Last Friday, the London nickel rebounded to its highest level since the end of January and slightly declined. And Lun Zinc rose for three consecutive days, continuing to reach a new high of over a week.

New York gold futures continued the rebound momentum from last Friday on Monday. COMEX April gold futures, which had no closing price due to holidays on Monday, rose to $2034.30 in early Asian trading, breaking the intraday high since last Tuesday on February 13th, with a 0.5% intraday increase.

If the trend continues to rise until the close on Tuesday, futures will continue to rise for three consecutive trading days, expected to reach a new closing high since February 12, far from the closing low since December 13, 2023, which was refreshed by consecutive declines on Wednesday and Friday last week.

Spot gold rose above $2023 before the European stock market on Monday, up nearly 0.5% on the day and hitting a new intraday high since February 13th.
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