"Investment for 15% tariff"! Trump's "tariff model" has been in winning numbers

Release Time：2025-07-24

The US-Japan trade agreement provides a template for other countries to negotiate, but it also increases the pressure on them to reach an agreement before the "tariff deadline" on August 1.

According to CCTV news, Japan and the United States have reached an agreement on tariffs, and the United States will impose a 15% tariff on Japan and increase imports of American rice. The agreement also includes Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the United States.

According to the agreement, the United States also asked Japan to buy 8 billion dollars of American goods, including corn, soybeans and fertilizers, 100 Boeing aircraft and more defense equipment.

The analysis pointed out that although the agreement lacked the details of traditional texts and was mainly published through official statements and social media, it set a "template" for partners such as the European Union and South Korea, prompting them to speed up negotiations to win tariffs below the threat level and exchange concessions through similar investment and procurement commitments.

Does the US-Japan agreement establish the "investment for tariff" model? EU may lock in 15% tax rate.

The agreement between the United States and Japan sets most Japanese export tariffs at 15%, which is lower than Trump's previous threat of 25%, and innovatively incorporates investment commitments.

The White House said that Japanese banks and financial institutions would inject $550 billion into an investment fund, which Japanese Prime Minister Shi Pomao said would be operated through loans and guarantees.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lu Tonuk also added that the investment fund will also involve equity investment, and the United States will lead the project selection and implementation, and the profits will be distributed to 90% of American taxpayers and 10% of Japanese.

Sen. Bill, the ambassador to Japan during Trump's first term and a Republican senator, called it an "unprecedented structure":

""They are working out a huge financing plan. So this is not foreign investment, but a financing plan. We will choose the best (projects) and let people compete for these projects. "

On Wednesday, two senior Trump administration officials hinted in media interviews that in order to facilitate a trade agreement, the EU should "learn from Japan" and exchange financing forms such as investment for more favorable tariff treatment from the US.

A person familiar with the matter told the media that after the United States and Japan reached an agreement, European officials were more likely to accept the idea that they might also impose a 15% benchmark tariff. The agreement with Japan shows that the tariff level of 15% can be applied to most major trading partners of the United States.

Wall Street has previously mentioned that the media quoted insiders as saying that the United States and the European Union are close to reaching an agreement. According to this agreement, the United States will impose a 15% tariff on the European Union, similar to the trade agreement reached between the United States and Japan.

The tax rate of 20% may become a "benchmark", and the EU and South Korea accelerate the pace of negotiations.

Experts believe that the US-Japan trade agreement sets a tariff benchmark of "below the prohibitive level".

William Reinsch, senior consultant of Center for Strategic and International Studies and former official of the Ministry of Commerce, said:

"More broadly, the goal of many foreign governments is to keep this figure below the forbidden level-25% to 35% will prevent most trade. If it is controlled below 20%, enterprises can cope. "

Many geopolitical advisers predict that the EU and South Korea will step up their efforts to reach an agreement, especially in the field of automobiles.

Owen Tedford, a senior analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, predicts that the pace of announcement of the agreement may accelerate in the days before August 1.

Owen Tedford analyzed that:

"If I were the EU, 10% of my hopes would have been dashed, and 15% would be the focus; If I can copy the Japanese agreement, it will be a victory. "

Industry tariff negotiation space appears

Analysts pay special attention to Japan's successful negotiations on tariff reduction in the automobile export industry. Tariffs in these industries have always been the main crux of many trade negotiations, including tariffs on automobiles, 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel, and pending tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Japan's successful reduction of automobile export tariff from 25% to 15% highlights the Trump administration's flexibility in this field and provides reference for other countries.

Monica Gorman, a former White House and Ministry of Commerce official and managing director of Crowell Global Advisors, pointed out that this shows that the Trump administration is willing to negotiate industry tariffs:

"Other countries, including the European Union, will almost certainly notice this."

Reinsch also added that historical precedents also support this flexibility: Trump planned to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum during his first term, and later reduced it through quotas and bilateral agreements.

Although the agreement emphasizes "buy America" and investment commitment, trade veterans are cautious.

Reinsch said that the past history of such commitments shows that "the number has changed from big to small", and many of them are repackaged for established plans, which have limited impact on the real economy. The White House sees these as tools to revive American industry, but analysts are still waiting for more details to assess sustainability.

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