CEO is bullish, but Wall Street is bearish? This earnings season, the earnings expectations of US stocks are quite different.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg Industry Research (BI), analysts predict that the profits of companies in the S&P 500 index will increase by 4.2% in the third quarter of this year compared with the same period of last year, which is lower than the 7% growth forecast in mid-July. Their own expectations mean that the profit will increase by about 16%, which is almost four times that expected by analysts. Wilson of Morgan Stanley believes: "The fundamental reason for the poor performance of the Big Seven may be the slowdown in earnings per share (EPS) compared with last year's very strong growth. If the earnings correction shows that the Big Seven are relatively strong, these stocks may perform well again, and the lead gap between the broader market (compared with them) may narrow-just like the second quarter (this year) and the whole year of 2023. " The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Hong Kong's position as a financial center leads the Asia-Pacific region.

Recently, there have been many good news in Hong Kong. With the strong support of the combination boxing of the mainland economy, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks returned to 20,000 points after rising for several days. In addition, in the latest issue of the 36th Global Financial Center Index jointly released by Z/Yen Group, a British think tank, and China (Shenzhen) Research Institute for Comprehensive Development, Hong Kong ranks one place higher, ranking third in the world and leading the Asia-Pacific region. It is worth mentioning that Hong Kong's overall score increased by 8 points to 749 points in this period, only one point behind London, the second place, and the top five financial centers improved the most. The promotion of Hong Kong's international ranking is the result of joint progress and accumulation in many financial industries. In addition to ranking first in the world in investment management, it is not far behind in other fields. The ranking of financial technology level has risen five places to the ninth place in the world, ranking among the top ten financial technology centers, and the insurance industry and banking industry have also risen from the tenth and ninth places to the third and fourth places in the world respectively. The strong competitiveness of generate in Hong Kong's financial sector depends not only on the unique background of "one country, two systems" and the unique advantages of "connecting the world with the motherland", but also on the active and flexible changes of the SAR Government in the turbulent and complex global environment. In the face of the great changes and accelerated evolution that have never happened in a century, the motherland has always been the strong backing for Hong Kong to resist storms and overcome challenges, and the greatest confidence for Hong Kong to maintain prosperity and stability. In the historical process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, Hong Kong cannot and will not be absent. Hong Kong was, is and will always be a "super contact" and a "super value-added person" connecting the mainland and the world. Relying on the unique advantages of inline and external communication In the process of further deepening reform and building a high-level socialist market economic system, Hong Kong has seized the opportunity of national development, profoundly studied and understood the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, implemented and integrated in daily work, achieved its own breakthrough, and contributed to the needs of the country with Hong Kong's strengths. On the mission of "consolidating and upgrading Hong Kong's position as an international financial, shipping and trade center", Hong Kong actively promoted the internationalization of RMB, participated in the construction of the Belt and Road with high quality, and made great efforts to build a two-way service platform of "bringing in" and "going out"; In terms of "striving to build Hong Kong into an international highland for gathering high-end talents", Hong Kong has taken the initiative to empower high-quality development with talents and continuously enhance new development momentum. Qian Fan, on the side of the sinking boat, said that in the complicated globalization trend caused by the slowdown of global economic growth and the intensification of geopolitical risks, Hong Kong's economy has continuously shown strong resilience. For example, Hong Kong's position as the world's leading wealth management center has been further strengthened. By the end of 2023, the assets under management in Hong Kong had reached HK$ 31 trillion, up about 2% from the previous year, and the net capital inflow was close to HK$ 390 billion, up 3.4 times year-on-year. The performance of family office business is particularly eye-catching. At the end of 2023, the number of single family offices has exceeded 2,700, nearly double that of 1,400 announced by Singapore at the end of 2022. In 2024, the number of family offices in Hong Kong is expected to increase by 200 to 300, and the overall number is expected to exceed 3,000. In addition, the newly launched capital investor entry scheme has received enthusiastic response. Since its launch in March 2024, it has received more than 550 applications and is expected to bring more than HK$ 16.5 billion in investment to Hong Kong. Hong Kong's sustained attraction and competitive advantage as a global wealth management hub have been consolidated and strengthened. The reform of Hong Kong's stock market has achieved remarkable results. In order to enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong's stock market, Hong Kong has actively taken innovative measures, such as setting up a listing system for specialized technology companies, reforming GEM, implementing a trading mechanism to maintain in bad weather, facilitating repurchase and launching a new stock storage mechanism, and expanding the listing channels for enterprises. At the same time, the SAR Government has continued to deepen the financial interconnection between the Mainland and Hong Kong, and strengthened Hong Kong's role as a hub connecting Chinese and foreign capital markets. In addition to expanding the eligible scope of ETF of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, it has also arranged a series of measures to optimize the swap mechanism. Thanks to various measures, the refinancing scale of the Hong Kong stock market has reached $20 billion since 2024, and about 100 companies are queuing for listing, including many applications for raising more than $1 billion. Talent is the cornerstone of the steady progress of Hong Kong society. The diversified talent input scheme launched by the Hong Kong SAR Government has effectively gathered and attracted high-quality talents, providing a strong impetus for Hong Kong's economic growth and diversified development. By the end of August 2024, the number of applications for various talent importation schemes had exceeded 360,000, of which 230,000 were approved, and the actual number of talents arriving in Hong Kong exceeded 150,000. These measures not only enhanced the talent pool of Hong Kong's financial industry and high-end industries, but also injected new vitality into the local economy. Vigorously expand technology and finance's emerging fields. It cannot be ignored that while consolidating and strengthening its existing advantages, the HKSAR Government has vigorously expanded technology and finance and other emerging fields, strengthened the diversified development pattern, and ensured long-term sustainable development. After years of planning by the SAR Government, Hong Kong now has more than 800 financial technology enterprises, including 8 digital banks and 4 digital insurance companies, further consolidating Hong Kong's leading position in the field of financial innovation. In addition, the virtual assets industry is booming in Hong Kong. Thanks to the efforts of the SAR Government, Hong Kong already has a relatively complete regulatory framework, which provides a good development environment for virtual assets transactions. By the first half of 2024, Hong Kong's virtual assets trading activities have generated HK$ 77 million in revenue, which shows Hong Kong's determination and potential in building an international virtual assets center and developing a new highland with Web 3.0. To sum up, Hong Kong's ranking as a global financial center again is an important stage achievement under the background of "one country, two systems" and relying on the unique advantages of "relying on the motherland and connecting the world", Hong Kong has successfully consolidated and strengthened its position as an international financial center. Looking ahead, Hong Kong has made remarkable achievements in innovative fields such as technology and finance, which will be an important guarantee for Hong Kong to continue to lead the global financial market in the future. Chairman of Guojun International

After a lapse of three months, the perspective of the three projects of IPO acceptance

After a lapse of three months, science and technology innovation board and Beijing Stock Exchange finally ushered in "Shangxin". Wuhan Xinxin Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinxin"), which recently applied for science and technology innovation board IPO and was accepted, is a wafer foundry, the second science and technology innovation board IPO project accepted by Shanghai Stock Exchange during the year, and the only listing project accepted by Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in September this year. The North Exchange accepted two companies whose IPO failed in Shanghai and Shenzhen-Shanghai Balanshi Automobile Testing Equipment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Balanshi") and Yatu High-tech Materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yatu High-tech"). With the successful acceptance of these three companies, some positive signals have been released to the market. In addition, the current secondary market has picked up, which may have created more favorable conditions for the recovery of IPO market. Science and technology innovation board's "second order" during the year. Following the acceptance of the single IPO project in Shanghai and Shenzhen on June 2 this year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have not made any new IPO projects public, which makes all parties feel pressure. At that time, many investment bankers expected that the market in September this year would continue in July and August, showing a "zero acceptance" state. At the end of September, the Shanghai Stock Exchange finally posted the science and technology innovation board IPO application materials of Xinxin, which became the "only seedling" in the Shanghai and Shenzhen acceptance link in September this year. Although this is relatively limited compared with the number of 11 orders accepted in the same period last year, the "zero breakthrough" still released many positive signals to the market. At the same time, the North Exchange also accepted two applications for listing of single projects, namely Balanshi and Yatu Gaoxin. In this context, whether IPO review is expected to speed up is highly anticipated. At the same time, the recovery of IPO is expected to cool down the "new stock speculation" in the secondary market. Recently listed shares of Changlian Technology (301618.SZ), Wireless Media (301551.SZ) and Hopewell Information (688615.SH) rose frequently to record highs. For example, Changlian Technology closed up as high as 1,703.98% on the first day of listing on September 30, while wireless media and Hehe Information rose by 318.83% and 105.91% respectively on the first day of listing on September 26. An investor in Beijing pointed out that in the case of limited supply of new shares, "speculation" does have certain income space. With the recovery of the secondary market, if the supply of new shares rises, it may curb irrational fluctuations such as "speculation" in the market. Specifically, the projects accepted this time have their own characteristics. As a domestic semiconductor characteristic process wafer foundry enterprise, Xinxin Co., Ltd. currently has two 12-inch wafer factories. The focus of Xinxin Co., Ltd. does not depend entirely on the characteristic process of size reduction, but focuses on the function improvement, and some friends pursue the advanced process of transistor size reduction based on Moore's Law, which represents different chip manufacturing development directions. The domestic representative company of the former is Hua Hong Company (688347.SH), and the representative of the latter is SMIC (688981.SH). Xinxin shares focus on special storage, digital-analog integration and three-dimensional integration to provide customers with 12-inch wafer foundry services. Characteristic storage is the advantage of Xinxin Co., Ltd., and its products cover NOR Flash (non-volatile memory chip) and MCU (single chip microcomputer) which can be used in consumer electronic products. From 2021 to 2023, the special storage business of Xinxin Co., Ltd. earned 2.178 billion yuan, 2.450 billion yuan and 2.57 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 60%-70%. However, due to the weak demand in the consumer electronics industry and overcapacity, the profit of Xinxin shares has fallen sharply. In 2023, the net profit returned to the mother was 394 million yuan, down 45.05% year-on-year. At present, Xinxin Co., Ltd. is putting its future development direction on the three-dimensional integration technology that is considered to be beyond Moore's Law. The so-called three-dimensional integration is to bypass the limitation of single process node of a single wafer, integrate all functional wafers using the optimal process node, and effectively improve the functional density per unit area. In recent years, the emerging generative artificial intelligence model has higher requirements for computing power and memory, which has given birth to the demand for three-dimensional integration technology. In this IPO, Xinxin intends to raise 4.8 billion yuan to invest in the "12-inch integrated circuit manufacturing production line phase III" and other projects. It is estimated that the related production capacity of three-dimensional integration business will reach 40,000 pieces/month after completion. Among them, the "12-inch integrated circuit manufacturing production line phase III" plans to use the raised funds of 4.3 billion yuan. But this is less than one-fifth of the total investment of the project-the investment of the "12-inch integrated circuit manufacturing production line phase III" project is 28 billion yuan. Many competitors are also pushing forward the expansion plan. According to the report of China Taiwan Province Media in July this year, TSMC has integrated advanced packaging into the 3D Fabric system integration platform, including SoIC series of 3D silicon stacking technology. Among them, SoIC series is one-stop production in TSMC plant, and the production capacity is planned to expand by more than 20 times in 2026. In July last year, TSMC announced that it would invest NT$ 90 billion (about RMB 19.7 billion) to build an advanced packaging factory to meet the demand of manufacturers such as NVIDIA for AI chips. In this context, Xinxin Co., Ltd. throws out a fundraising plan to increase its horsepower to promote the expansion of three-dimensional integration related businesses, which is expected to gain more market share in the wave of artificial intelligence. Trade wind (ID: Tradewind 01) noticed that the bidding for the "Phase III of 12-inch integrated circuit manufacturing production line" project of Xinxin Co., Ltd. has been started, with a total construction area of about 350,000 square meters, mainly including a FAB production plant, and the planned production capacity of the project is 50,000 pieces/month. Shanghai-Shenzhen retreat project goes north Balanshi, who was accepted by the Beijing Stock Exchange this time, had previously targeted the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. As early as 2017, Baranshi submitted a listing application to the CSRC, but took the initiative to withdraw the IPO application the following year. Until the end of September this year, he launched a sprint to the North Stock Exchange and once again knocked on the door of the capital market. Balanshi mainly sells automobile repair, inspection and maintenance equipment to BYD, Ideality and other automobile manufacturers and large chain automobile repair and maintenance shops. The specific categories include tire unloaders, balancing machines and lifts. Compared with seven years ago, Balance's performance has increased to some extent. In 2023, the income and net profit returned to the mother were 794 million yuan and 81 million yuan respectively, 1.46 times and 1.76 times that of 2017, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.59% and 168.19% respectively. The important driving force of the sharp increase in performance is that the increase in the number of cars has expanded the demand in the maintenance market. However, this is also affected by the low base of the previous year. In 2022, due to the decline in downstream market demand and the obstruction of Shanghai port exports, Balanshi experienced a big decline in performance, and the net profit returned to the mother in the current period fell by over 50% year-on-year to only 30 million yuan. It remains to be seen whether the huge increase in Balance's performance today is sustainable. Similar to Balanshi, Yatu Gaoxin, who rushed to the North Stock Exchange this time, had previously targeted Shanghai and Shenzhen. In January, 2021, Yatu Gaoxin signed an IPO counseling agreement with GF Securities, intending to declare the GEM and submit listing counseling materials to the CSRC. Later, based on the consideration of business conditions, in April 2023, the proposed listing section was changed to the main board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. As of January this year, Yatu Gaoxin has updated 12 issues of IPO counseling materials, but it has never been able to launch a sprint to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. With the tightening of IPO in Shanghai and Shenzhen, Yatu Gaoxin listed on the New Third Board in May this year and chose to move to the North Stock Exchange. Yatu High-tech is mainly engaged in industrial coatings such as automobile repair, interior and exterior decoration, and its performance also increased significantly during the reporting period. In 2023, its revenue and net profit returned to its mother were 636 million yuan and 117 million yuan respectively, up by 14.18% and 49.93% respectively. This is mainly influenced by geopolitics. The mainstream auto repair paint factory withdrew from the Russian market, which forced local auto repair companies to seek other brands, which also gave Yatu Hi-tech more opportunities. "The company continued to strengthen sales in Russia, the number of products sold increased, and the income increased significantly." Yatu Gaoxin said. The growth trend is still going on. In the first half of 2024, Yatu Gaoxin's income and net profit returned to its mother increased by 12.13% and 40.33% respectively. With the recovery of IPO, the market is waiting to see whether these three companies can go public smoothly. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

At the time of the Fed's turn, JPMorgan Chase is about to start the

According to the latest data from LSEG and StreetAccount, Wall Street's expectations for JPMorgan Chase's third-quarter results are as follows: Revenue: US$ 41.63 billion, up from US$ 39.87 billion in the same period last year; Trading income: fixed income income is 4.38 billion US dollars, and stock income is 2.41 billion US dollars. Now, with the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the market is full of doubts about how JPMorgan Chase will respond to this change. Like other big banks, JPMorgan Chase's profit margin may be squeezed as the yield of interest-bearing assets such as loans declines. Last month, JPMorgan Chase lowered its forecast for net interest income and expenditure in 2025. This year, JPMorgan Chase's stock has risen by 25%, exceeding the KBW Bank Index's 20% increase. The American banking industry is not out of the Woods yet. In September, the Federal Reserve sharply cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Generally speaking, the drop in interest rates is good news for banks, especially when the rate cut is not a precursor to economic recession. "The market fluctuates because inflation seems to accelerate again, which makes people worry about whether the Fed will suspend interest rate cuts, which also puzzles me." Ideally, banks will benefit when the financing cost falls faster than the rate of return on assets that generate income, thus improving their net interest profit rate. On October 1st, Richard Ramsden, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Bank, said in a report that the net interest income of large banks is expected to drop by an average of 4% in the third quarter due to weak loan growth and lagging deposit repricing. The report also said that the deposit cost of large banks will still rise in the fourth quarter. "Obviously, as interest rates fall, the pressure on deposit repricing will decrease, but as you know, our assets are very sensitive." However, the negative impact of interest rate cuts on JPMorgan Chase also has some offsetting factors. Analysts predict that lower interest rates will benefit the investment banking business of large banks, because when interest rates fall, there will often be more transactions. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Interconnection, continuous optimization, research and expansion of investment scope

Fed officials set the tone for future interest rate cuts:

Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve, who has the right to vote at the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee permanently, believes that the Fed should continue to focus on reducing inflation, but balance the Fed's mission of full employment in a "balanced way" to avoid an "unnecessary" slowdown in employment and the economy. If the inflation situation changes in line with her expectations, she will support further interest rate cuts. Cugler: Avoid unnecessary economic and employment slowdown, and pay attention to the inflation risk of hurricanes and events in the Middle East. "I think (FOMC's) focus should be on continuing to reduce inflation to 2%, but I also support shifting attention to full employment in FOMC's dual mission." "The labor market remains resilient, and I support a balanced approach to FOMC's dual mission so that we can continue to make progress in inflation while avoiding unnecessary slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion." "I am paying close attention to the impact of Hurricane Helene and geopolitical events in the Middle East on the economy, because these may affect the economic prospects of the United States. If the downside risk of employment intensifies, then it may be appropriate to shift the policy to a neutral position as soon as possible. " Collins: To maintain the current favorable economic environment and have more confidence in inflation, the risk of economic slowdown will increase. "Looking ahead, maintaining the current favorable economic environment will require adjusting the stance of monetary policy so as to avoid unnecessary restrictions on demand. A cautious, data-based policy normalization approach will be appropriate, because we balance the two risks and pay close attention to the two missions authorized by Congress-price stability and full employment. " "I want to emphasize that (the Fed's currency) policy has no preset path, and (the Fed) will still carefully rely on data and adjust with the development of the economy." "I have more confidence in the downward trajectory of inflation, but the risk of economic slowdown exceeding the need to restore price stability has also increased." The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

The third-in-command of the Federal Reserve: I don't want to see the US economy weak, and I support a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November.

The unexpectedly strong non-agricultural data in the United States further released the signal of "soft landing" of the economy, and the Federal Reserve's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November was greatly weakened. Wall Street even began to discuss the topic of "no more interest rate cuts this year". On October 8th, new york Federal Reserve Chairman William also said in an interview that the US economy is ready for a "soft landing" and supports the Fed to slow down the rate cut, which is expected to be only 25 basis points in November. At the same time, Williams does not want to "see the economy weaken", but hopes that the momentum of the economy and the labor market will continue, with the goal of adjusting the interest rate to a "neutral" level. The non-agricultural data in September obviously reversed the current market expectations. In addition to the "soft landing", a new scenario of "no landing" of the US economy was put forward. This also hit the buying boom of American debt, and the yield of American debt once exceeded 4%. The third hand of the Federal Reserve: the economy is ready for a "soft landing" Williams is the "third-in-command of the Federal Reserve" and enjoys the permanent voting right of FOMC. In an interview, he said that the "very good" non-agricultural report in September confirmed the resilience of the economy and further pointed out: The current monetary policy stance is indeed in a favorable position, which is expected to maintain the strength of the economy and labor market, and to continue to see inflation return to the target level of 2%. In Williams' view, a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September was "correct" then and now. However, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is not a "guideline for future actions", and these decisions of the Federal Reserve will depend on data, rather than following a "preset route", which echoes the statement of the Federal Reserve Powell. Williams said that the goal is to adjust the interest rate to a "neutral" level, and "over time" will no longer restrain demand. At the same time, he doesn't want to "see the economy weaken": As President Powell said, it is reasonable to readjust the policy to a level that is still restrictive and still exerts downward pressure on inflation, but the pressure is much less than before. I don't want to see the economy weaken. I hope that the strong momentum seen in the economy and the labor market will continue. After the radical rate cut, Williams supported the Fed to slow down the rate cut, suggesting that it would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The latest "bitmap" of Fed officials' interest rate forecast shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the remaining two meetings this year, which is a "very good benchmark situation". Regarding the inflation situation, Williams predicted that inflation would be close to the target level of 2% by next year, but at the same time he was cautious about geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and other regions. The conflict in the Middle East may lead to soaring oil prices or raise inflation concerns again. Moussalem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, also holds a similar view. He believes that it is reasonable for the Fed to cut interest rates gradually and slowly, but it is necessary to be wary of excessively relaxing monetary policy. The uncertainty of inflation may threaten the credibility of the Fed and its future employment and economic activities. In view of the current economic situation, the Fed's "too fast and too much" easing policy is more costly than the gradual easing policy. There is also the saying that the American economy "does not land"? The non-agricultural data in September obviously reversed the current market expectation. In addition to the "soft landing", a new scenario of "no landing" of the US economy was put forward, and some people even rarely began to worry about overheating. The "non-landing" scenario refers to the situation that the US economy continues to grow and inflation heats up again, leaving the Fed with little room to cut interest rates. This scenario was once ignored by the bond market in recent months. Bond traders originally expected that the US economy would slow down and inflation would be moderate, and the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates sharply. This also hit the buying boom of American debt, and the yield of American debt once exceeded 4%. Before the US stock market closed on Monday, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 4% again, and the yield of 2-year US Treasury bonds exceeded 4% for the first time since August. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Senior Fed officials call for the resumption of gradual interest rate cuts!

A senior Fed official said that the Fed should resume "gradual" interest rate cuts after an unusually sharp 50 basis points cut earlier this month. Moussalem told the Financial Times last Friday: "For me, the measure to cut interest rates is to relax the brakes on the economy at this stage and let the policy gradually reduce restrictions." Less than two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve abandoned the more traditional interest rate cut of 25 basis points to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to start the first easing cycle since the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. This huge interest rate cut will keep the federal funds rate between 4.75% and 5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the move is aimed at maintaining the strength of the world's largest economy and avoiding a weak labor market when inflation falls. Moussalem supported a sharp interest rate cut in September. He admitted that the labor market had cooled down in recent months, but he was still optimistic about the prospects given the low rate of layoffs and the potential strength of the economy. He said that the business sector is in a "good condition" and business activities are generally "stable", adding that mass layoffs do not seem "imminent". This echoed the comments made by Federal Reserve Governor Waller last week, saying that if the data weakened faster, he would be "more willing to actively cut interest rates". Musalem said that the risk of economic weakness or excessive growth has now been balanced, and the next interest rate decision will depend on the data at that time. However, officials have different views, with two suggesting that the Fed should postpone further interest rate cuts, while the other seven predict that it will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year. Policymakers also predict that the policy interest rate will drop by another 100 basis points in 2025, ranging from 3.25% to 3.5% by the end of the year, and slightly below 3% by the end of 2026. He said: "It is appropriate to send a strong and clear message to the economy that we are starting from a very favorable position."

The economy is declining and the stock market is hitting new highs. Can European stocks hold up?

Central banks cut interest rates in turn, and China's "policy spree" ignited global optimism. European stock markets closed at a new high on Friday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.47% to a new high, the German stock index rose 1.7% to a new high, luxury goods stocks jumped, and LVMH and kering both rose nearly 10%. Since the beginning of this year, European stocks have been strong and hit record highs. However, for the follow-up trend of European stocks, the fund managers of Goldman Sachs Group, BlackRock and Northern Trust Asset Management Company expressed concern that the rise of European stocks is facing severe challenges. They warned that investors need to be alert to the economic downturn in Europe and its impact on corporate profits. In addition, the variables in the US election have added new uncertainties to the market. With the entry into the last quarter in 2024, the market sentiment is increasingly turbulent. The strong gains of European stocks in the first half of the year have turned into frequent fluctuations in the past few months. Europe's inflation has cooled but the economy has shrunk, and the stock market has insufficient motivation to rise. The weak European economy is in stark contrast to the record high of the stock market in this region. Although inflation has further cooled down and the inflation rate in France and Spain has fallen below 2%, private sector activities in the euro zone have shrunk this month, and the risk of economic recession in Germany has become more and more prominent. In September, the comprehensive PMI of the euro zone dropped to 48.9, which was lower than that of threshold for the first time since February this year. Both Germany and France accelerated their contraction. The initial value of Germany's comprehensive PMI declined for the fourth consecutive month. The French service industry fell back into contraction, and manufacturing sales dropped significantly. Northern Trust Asset Management Co., Ltd. lowered its allocation of European stocks from overweight to neutral this week due to concerns about the macroeconomic prospects. Anwiti Bahuguna, chief investment officer of the company's global configuration, pointed out: Economic data is unstable. Although inflation has declined, it is not enough to support a sharp interest rate cut. The current market environment is not suitable for taking too high risks. The US election adds uncertainty. Since the European benchmark index hit an all-time high in May, it has repeatedly failed to break through this resistance level, indicating that this point is still a key obstacle to the market. The analysis pointed out that if Trump wins in the US election, it may have a major impact on the income of European companies. Barclays strategists warned that if this triggered the "trade friction" between Europe and America, the profit growth of European companies would be significantly dragged down, especially the German and Italian stock markets, as well as capital goods, automobiles, technology and other industries. The political uncertainty in France has also put pressure on the stock market in this region. The performance of the Paris market is inferior to other major stock indexes, and investors have doubts about the stability of the new government. Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of BlackRock's basic stocks in Europe, Middle East and Africa, said that European stocks are currently in a highly sensitive stage: The results of the US election are unpredictable, the macroeconomic outlook is also full of uncertainty, and the fragility of the market may continue until 2025. The key to the trend of European stocks lies in corporate profits. Strategists at Barclays and Citigroup said that China's policy measures may have a positive impact on cyclical stocks such as mining, automobile manufacturing and consumer goods. According to the analysis, China's recent stimulus policy may be the key to promote STOXX Europe 600 Index's rise at the end of the year. After all, about 8% of the index's income comes from China. However, Gilles Guibout, head of European stocks at AXA Investment Bank, reminded that the key to the future trend of European stocks will be corporate profitability. He said: Ultimately, the future direction of the market will depend on the company's earnings performance to be announced soon. The third-quarter results to be announced by European companies in mid-October are crucial for assessing the impact of the European economic slowdown on consumer demand. Analysts in JPMorgan Chase warned that sales of Novo Nordisk's best-selling diet drug Wegovy may be lower than expected, which may be one of the early signs of the performance trend this quarter. At the same time, Sweden's H&M also said that its key profit target is difficult to achieve, and the prospect of the retail industry is increasingly worrying. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Catalyzed by the wave of interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is moving towards the best September in history.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Bitcoin rose by more than 10% this month, while in the past decade, it fell by an average of 5.9% in September. The small currency index rose by more than 20%. Sean McNulty, trading director of Arbelos Markets, said: "As far as the Fed is concerned, the correlation between Bitcoin and monetary policy is still the highest. The easing policies of other central banks certainly help. " Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said that since a large number of option contracts will expire on Friday, the level of $65,000 may prove to be "firm" in a few hours. In addition, the US presidential election may also boost digital assets. The market expects that within a few months after the election, the regulation of cryptocurrency in the United States will be clearer, which will boost market sentiment. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.