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View detailsTech companies seeking to strike gold in the Middle East have entered a "wartime state".
An insider from a tech company in Shenzhen told Qianzhankeji that they never thought war would be so close. They immediately recalled all the staff on business trips and suspended all the flights that were originally planned to depart. At the same time, the company urgently purchased supplies for the team in Dubai. In the past year, the Middle East was still a highly sought-after "hot spot" in the overseas expansion map of Chinese enterprises, especially favored by tech giants and photovoltaic companies. Thanks to the energy transition strategies vigorously promoted by the governments of many Middle Eastern countries, the market is experiencing an extremely significant and explosive growth trend. Companies like JA Solar and Jun Da Co., Ltd. are rushing to build factories in Oman. When the dark clouds of war suddenly loomed over this land, all the aggressive expansion plans that were advancing with great momentum instantly faced a life-and-death test of the most severe kind. Over the past one to two years, the Middle East has witnessed a rapid advance of Chinese capital and technology, with multiple tracks converging here. JD.com plans to collaborate with the Saudi Arabian Industrial Cities and Technology Zones Authority to develop over 2 million square meters of industrial and logistics assets in the local area. In the field of medical devices, United Imaging's high-end PET/CT uMI Panorama 35 has entered Kuwait, and Mindray's information and support business has also been implemented in countries such as Saudi Arabia. However, with the large-scale joint military strike launched by Israel and the United States against Iran, after Iran's counterattack, the neighboring countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia were successively affected, and the entire Gulf region was instantly drawn into the war. "At that time, we didn't actually expect it to be so serious. We originally planned to go on a business trip, but we didn't go because the flight was cancelled. Now looking back, it seems we 'escaped a disaster'." A person from an Internet technology company in Beijing, who preferred to remain anonymous, told AllTech. An insider from a security company in Shenzhen told Qianzhan Tech that "All Israeli clients are now working from home, but fortunately, we can still get in touch with them normally these two days." The first to be directly exposed to the outdoors are "people and vehicles". Keeta also stated that it is maintaining close contact with relevant authorities in the Middle East, strictly adhering to all government guidelines and instructions, including any directives related to operational suspensions or service adjustments. If necessary, services in specific areas will be temporarily restricted or suspended to ensure community safety, and the company will respond promptly to the situation. To ensure testing safety, RoboTaxi has suspended operations within the United Arab Emirates, except for the Abu Dhabi area, which continues to provide services normally. Pony.ai initially halted road tests in Dubai and Doha. After an assessment, tests in Doha resumed on March 2nd. This sudden outbreak of war is testing the local risk-resistance capabilities of all parties. In recent years, the Middle East has become a "hot spot" for Chinese enterprises to go global. On the other hand, many countries in the Middle East are in the midst of economic transformation. Top-level plans such as Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" are attempting to break away from sole reliance on oil and have opened their doors to foreign enterprises in high-tech, new energy and other sectors. Amid the backdrop of the energy transition in the Middle East, a wave of factory construction by Chinese giants has emerged. In November of the same year, JA Solar also signed a memorandum of understanding with the United Arab Emirates, planning to establish a 2GW solar cell and module factory. In this process, geopolitics is often overlooked by the market, perhaps merely serving as a standardized risk warning at the end of due diligence reports. It is precisely these heavy-asset projects that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build that appear extremely passive in the face of uncontrollable military conflicts. Once the war spreads and leads to the suspension of air routes or damage to infrastructure, the enterprises will face the heavy price of huge investments going down the drain and supply chain disruptions. It is undeniable that the Middle East remains one of the few markets in the world with huge purchasing power, but the feverish window of opportunity where one could "strike gold" without even opening their eyes has come to an end. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Clause
2026-03-04 -
View detailsIs ETF taking over the US stock market? $350 billion has poured in over two months, accounting for nearly 40% of total trading volume.
In the increasingly volatile market environment, the trading volume of ETFs is expanding rapidly. On March 3rd, due to geopolitical news, the US market experienced severe fluctuations. The trading volume of ETFs accounted for nearly 40% of the overall US stock market on that day, approaching the historical record. Peter Callahan, a TMT expert from Goldman Sachs, stated in the review of the day's market movements, "The ETFs played a very significant role today. There were very few actual transactions at the individual stock level." The above trend indicates that ETFs have evolved from an auxiliary investment tool to a core means for managing risk exposure during market fluctuations. Their impact on the market price discovery mechanism, liquidity structure, and even capital allocation logic is drawing significant attention from the industry. Flood of Funds: In the past two months, a total of 350 billion yuan has been collected, with an average daily income of 9 billion yuan. According to Goldman Sachs data, in the first two months of this year, the total net inflow of US-listed ETFs exceeded 350 billion US dollars, an increase of 80% compared to the same period in 2025. Calculated on a daily basis, the market averaged an inflow of approximately 9 billion US dollars into ETFs each trading day, which was 52% higher than the record level in 2025. The market carries risks and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-03-03 -
View detailsThe allure of cryptocurrencies has faded, and retail investors are flocking to the stock market.
The retail investors, who used to be the most reliable fuel for the cryptocurrency market, are now collectively withdrawing. On March 2nd, according to Bloomberg, the market maker Wintermute, citing the latest report released by JPMorgan Chase, stated that since the end of 2024, retail funds have been continuously flowing into the stock market. This trend accelerated significantly after the crypto market crash in October last year. The price of Bitcoin, which was approximately $126,000 at its historical peak, has nearly halved and is currently trading around $66,000, while stock indices have continued to rise. This structural transformation has directly undermined the fundamental demand foundation of the cryptocurrency market. Unlike the stock market, which is supported by corporate earnings, dividends, and institutional allocation needs, cryptocurrency assets have long relied heavily on the speculative enthusiasm of retail investors as the main driving force for demand. Evgeny Gaevoy, the CEO of Wintermute, stated that cryptocurrencies have now become "one of many risky assets with similar fluctuation characteristics", and no longer enjoy a unique position. The data on capital flow confirms the trend of transfer. The data on capital flows clearly shows the scale of this migration. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, in the past three months, the spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced a net outflow of nearly 3 billion US dollars, although there were some small inflows on some trading days recently. It is worth noting that the crypto market crash in October last year was the direct trigger for this large-scale migration of retail investors. According to Coinglass data, this crash wiped out the accounts of over 1.6 million traders and caused a loss of more than 19 billion US dollars in positions. More than 7 billion US dollars vanished in less than an hour. Wintermute's report indicates that after the crash, retail investors' funds showed a "virtually complete shift towards the stock market", and this trend has continued to this day. This marks a significant break from the previous investment cycle – in the past cycles, stocks and digital assets often moved in tandem as a double bet on risk appetite, and retail investors did not make any clear choices between the two markets. Meanwhile, equity funds continue to attract capital, and thematic ETFs are also in high demand - taking the example of gold-themed ETFs, they attracted over 20 billion US dollars in funds during the same period. Pantera Capital's portfolio manager Cosmo Jiang pointed out that the speculative attention of retail investors is spreading to a wider range of thematic trading. "According to the monthly ETF data, we can see that funds have been pouring into gold, silver, quantum computing and other thematic ETFs, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced capital outflows during the same period," he said. "This clearly indicates that a considerable amount of speculative retail investor attention and momentum has shifted to other thematic transactions." The volatility advantage has narrowed, and the appeal of cryptocurrencies has declined. One of the core attractions of cryptocurrencies for retail investors lies in their significantly higher volatility compared to traditional assets – and this advantage is gradually fading. According to Wintermute's data, the realized volatility ratio of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq has continued to decline, and at one point in the first half of 2025, it even dropped below twice. For ordinary traders chasing excess returns, the volatility gap between cryptocurrencies and stocks is narrowing, and the unique appeal of crypto assets is thus weakening. Wintermute, in a post on its social media, summarized this phenomenon as: "The surge in retail activity in the stock market is sucking the air out of the crypto market." Meanwhile, Wintermute also pointed out a more profound structural change: Retail investors in the stock market increasingly feel that they have an analytical advantage, largely thanks to the widespread use of AI tools - profit analysis and stock selection screening have become more accessible. However, this "sense of information advantage" is difficult to replicate in the cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrencies lack a recognized valuation framework, and the range of investable assets is constantly expanding, making it hard for individual investors to build the confidence for "informed decision-making". This cognitive gap has further accelerated the departure of retail investors. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risks and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-03-02 -
View detailsThe Federal Reserve: Decline in the attractiveness of government bonds has pushed key interest rates up.
The market carries risks and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-02-26 -
View detailsA Fed governor warns that monetary policy may not be able to cope with the unemployment wave caused by AI.
"During this period of productivity growth, an increase in the unemployment rate does not necessarily mean that there is more idle capacity in the economy. Therefore, when dealing with the unemployment caused by AI, our conventional demand-side monetary policies may not be able to function without triggering inflationary (upward) pressures." Cook's statement came at a sensitive time for the market. Last weekend, a firm called Citrini Research released a report that could be described as a "doomsday prophecy for 2028", detailing the potential risks of AI on various economic sectors worldwide. This triggered a sharp decline in US stocks of software, delivery and payment companies, as well as financial stocks on Monday. Another Federal Reserve理事 Christopher Waller, who spoke alongside Cook on Tuesday, held a different view from Citrini. On another occasion, he stated that Citrini's report "overstates the potential impact of AI on employment" and emphasized that "AI is a tool and it will not replace our existence as human beings Monetary policy is confronted with a new type of dilemma between inflation and unemployment. Cook's main argument is that the unemployment caused by AI is fundamentally different from traditional cyclical unemployment. The former results from structural adjustments rather than insufficient aggregate demand, which significantly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy tools. She clearly pointed out that when productivity continues to increase and economic growth remains strong, the rise in unemployment rates caused by the "restructuring" in the labor market does not indicate that there is excess capacity in the economy. In such circumstances, if the Federal Reserve still uses traditional demand-side tools to respond, it may fail to effectively solve the employment problem while simultaneously pushing up inflation. Cook said: "Monetary policy makers will have to make a choice between unemployment and inflation... Education, workforce training, and other non-monetary measures might be better suited to address these challenges in a more targeted manner." Cook also emphasized that it is currently impossible to determine the exact trend and intensity of this round of labor market transformation. Early signs have emerged in the job market - the demand for jobs in fields most deeply influenced by AI, such as programming, has significantly declined. The unemployment rate for recent university graduates has continued to rise over the past few years. One of the reasons for this is that some employers are introducing AI into tasks that were previously handled by entry-level employees. However, she also pointed out that "the overall unemployment rate remains at a low level of 4.3%, and the recent indicators of layoffs are still moderate." AI may either initially raise or subsequently lower the neutral interest rate. Apart from the job market, Cook provided opposite judgments regarding the short-term and long-term impacts of AI on neutral interest rates. This is another policy focus of this speech. She stated that before the full realization of productivity gains, large-scale commercial investments in AI - including the purchase of data centers and chips - are driving up total demand, and "the current neutral interest rate may be higher than it was before the pandemic." This judgment aligns with the views of some Federal Reserve officials, who have recently successively suggested that the productivity boom driven by AI might raise the neutral interest rate level. But Cook also pointed out the risk of the logical reversal. She stated: "When the productivity gains of AI are fully realized, or if the transformation of the labor market leads to an increase in income inequality, resulting in a larger share of income going to affluent consumers, this trend may reverse. In other words, under the same conditions, the neutral interest rate will decline accordingly." In the post-meeting group discussion, Cook added that the impact of AI might take five to ten years to be reflected in the overall economic productivity statistics. She also stated that the Federal Reserve has incorporated AI into its forecasting models, including its potential impact on the neutral interest rate and the stimulating effect of data center investments on economic growth. The internal policy discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding AI are gradually deepening. Cook's speech is the latest example of recent policy officials of the Federal Reserve's intense discussions on the implications of AI-related monetary policies. It reflects that this topic has gradually moved from a peripheral issue to the core area of the decision-making level within the Federal Reserve. After three consecutive interest rate cuts of 25 basis points, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at its latest FOMC monetary policy meeting in January this year, citing signs of stabilization in the labor market. The pricing in the futures market indicates that investors currently expect the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts no earlier than the middle of this year. In this speech, Cook did not express an opinion on the short-term monetary policy direction, but mentioned the latest labor market data released after the January meeting, believing that the relevant data strengthened the market's judgment of stabilization. Before joining the Federal Reserve, Cook had been deeply engaged in research on innovation economics for over two decades, and he applied machine learning methods in his studies. This speech thus combines both policy and academic dimensions. The market carries risks and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-02-25 -
View detailsTrump's 10%
Trump's 10% "global tariff" has officially come into effect today. According to CCTV News, the White House of the United States recently announced that it will impose a 10% ad valorem import tariff on goods imported into the United States for a period of 150 days. The tariff will come into effect at 00:01 on February 24th, Eastern Time of the United States. According to a report by the media citing an unnamed government official, the White House is preparing to issue a formal order to raise the global tariff benchmark to 15%, but the implementation schedule has not yet been determined. Uncertainty has rapidly spread to the negotiation table and corporate decision-making processes. Major trading partners, including the European Union and India, have suspended related arrangements due to the unclear policy outlook. "Trade Law" 122 "Passing the Ball", 10% tariff granted a 150-day window According to Bloomberg, Trump is invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for the imposition of tariffs for up to 150 days without the need for congressional approval. The White House chose this approach. The main reason was that the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's previous use of emergency powers laws to introduce the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" was illegal, forcing him to change his approach in order to maintain the tariff framework. The new executive order retains some exemptions, including certain key minerals, metals used for currency and gold and silver bars, energy and energy products; natural resources and fertilizers that cannot be grown, mined or produced in any other way in the United States. The exemption results in an effective tax rate that is lower than the nominal tax rate, and also leads to a divergence in the actual impact across different countries and industries. 15% of the suspense has disrupted global negotiations, and the EU and India have called a halt. Whether the tax rate will be raised to 15% and when it will be raised have become the biggest variable at present. The media reports that unclear signals have caused confusion worldwide, and governments of various countries and multinational companies are re-examining existing trade agreements to assess the applicable boundaries and cost changes under the latest threats. The EU announced on Monday that it would suspend the approval process for its agreements with the US until Trump's latest tariff plan is clear. India, citing similar reasons, postponed this week's talks in the US, which were originally planned to discuss and finalize a temporary trade agreement. Meanwhile, on Monday, Trump also warned that higher tariffs would be imposed on those partners who "played games" with the existing agreements. The toolkit for rebuilding the "tariff wall": 301 and 232 are slower and less flexible The Trump team has reaffirmed that tariffs remain at the core of its trade policy and plans to launch a series of investigations at a faster pace, in order to impose tariffs without the need for congressional involvement, with the aim of rebuilding the tariff system that was "destroyed" by court rulings. However, Bloomberg pointed out that the authorizations mentioned by the White House such as Section 301 and Section 232 are less flexible than the emergency power tools previously used, and the relevant investigations may take several months to complete. So far, no new investigations have been announced. In response to the court ruling, government officials asked trading partners to continue to abide by the agreements reached with the United States over the past year. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on CBS's "Face the Nation" program, "We hope they understand that these agreements will be good agreements, that we will abide by them, and that our partners will also abide by them." However, this statement did not completely allay the concerns of major economies regarding policy reversals. The ECB's president, Christine Lagarde, said on the same program that it is crucial for global trade to "obtain clarity from the US government". The State of the Union address has concluded, and the political contest over public opinion has intensified. Trump is about to deliver a State of the Union address to Congress. There will be Democrats and some Republicans who oppose some of his trade policies present at the event. Bloomberg said that the speech is expected to focus on the economic agenda. The Republicans are trying to formulate information for the midterm elections to respond to voters' dissatisfaction with the cost of living. Public pressure is also on the rise. According to a joint survey conducted by The Washington Post, ABC and Ipsos, 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump's approach to tariffs, while only 34% approve. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Clause The market carries risks and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-02-24 -
View details"The artificial sun" is set to go on the market. Last year, the number of financing rounds for nuclear fusion startups reached an all-time high.
As the nuclear fusion industry gradually approaches the stage of commercialization, related start-up companies are accelerating their transition from laboratories to the capital market, and the pace of listing through SPAC for leading enterprises is also accelerating. According to data from PitchBook cited by the Financial Times, venture capital firms participated in 43 rounds of financing in the field of nuclear fusion last year, setting a new record; the total investment reached 2.3 billion US dollars, the highest level since 2021. Investors are pouring into this field in large numbers, hoping that this technology, which promises to provide cheap, abundant and carbon-free energy, will eventually prove economically viable. Although the majority of the funds still come from the private market, leading companies have begun to seek public listings to support projects that cost billions of dollars. General Fusion announced last month that it would go public through a merger with a SPAC, with an estimated valuation of approximately $1 billion. It is expected that the transaction will be completed in mid-2026 and will make it the first pure nuclear fusion company to go public. Additionally, TAE Technologies also stated that it plans to seek a listing through a full-stock merger with Trump Media & Technology Group, with a valuation of $6 billion. Capital inflow and the listing boom Nuclear fusion technology aims to replicate the energy-producing reactions of the sun, forcing atomic nuclei to combine under extreme heat or pressure to generate energy. Unlike fission, which produces nuclear waste, fusion is regarded as the "Holy Grail" of clean energy. Although there are no commercial nuclear fusion companies currently capable of achieving commercially viable fusion, that is, demonstrating that the energy produced by their technology exceeds the energy consumed, this has not stopped capital from moving forward. Market data shows that investors' interest in this industry has extended to the retail sector. Kristi Marvin, the founder and CEO of data provider SPACInsider, said that retail investors "love anything with a futuristic feel". She pointed out that although the commercialization prospects of these companies are very distant, retail investors are not afraid of them. The listing structure of General Fusion also reflects the optimism of the market. As part of the SPAC transaction, the pricing of PIPE funds from institutional investors was not only higher than the issue price, but the company's valuation reached the $1 billion level, marking that the industry is shifting from a simple proof-of-concept stage to a deeper stage of capital operation. Industry Segmentation and Construction Cycle With the influx of funds, the financing dynamics within the nuclear fusion industry began to diverge. The nuclear fusion company with the most current financing - Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) - has raised approximately $3 billion. The company's senior vice president, Ally Yost, noted that the industry is undergoing a transformation: New entrants have increased the number of financing rounds but with smaller individual amounts; while established leading companies have entered a "more capital-intensive" stage. This transformation stems from the fact that enterprises are moving from the PPT (presentation) concept stage to the stage of building expensive physical machines. Most leaders are developing demonstration units, which are scaled-down versions of future power plants, aiming to prove the feasibility of the technology. According to Jost, CFS is building pre-commercial facilities and plans to build its first commercial power plant in the United States in the early 2030s. Another well-funded company, Helion Energy, has set an even more ambitious goal, aiming to achieve the first power sales by the end of 2028. General Fusion is also currently testing its pre-commercial facilities. Different betting strategies and market skepticism In the face of huge capital demands, each company has adopted different strategies. Greg Twinney, the CEO of General Fusion, stated that although the company faced financing challenges in 2025, it adopted a more cautious approach compared to its competitors. Instead of making a "billions of dollars' bet" on a single machine, the company chose to test individual components on a smaller scale. Twinney believes that this method can achieve similar milestones with "one order of magnitude less capital". However, there are still significant doubts in the market regarding such high valuations. As nuclear fusion remains an unproven technology and the path to commercial application is long, some financial experts have issued warnings. Ted Brandt, the founder and CEO of the clean energy investment bank Marathon Capital, pointed out that these unproven technologies are still several years away from generating cash flow, yet they have received "crazy valuations". He questioned the rationality of this phenomenon and stated that it essentially means that the market is "financing the next SpaceX". Risk Warning and Disclaimer Clause The market carries risks and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-02-11 -
View detailsBenson: The Federal Reserve may not reduce its balance sheet rapidly.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Beeson stated on Sunday that even in the case where Wash, who previously criticized the central bank's bond purchase program, was nominated as the chair of the Federal Reserve, he does not believe that the Federal Reserve will take immediate action to reduce its balance sheet. According to Reuters, Besant stated on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures" program that the Federal Reserve might need up to a year to make a decision regarding its balance sheet. This statement provided crucial policy expectation guidance for the market, suggesting that the monetary authorities will adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude in managing the balance sheet. Bessonet emphasized that the adjustment of the balance sheet depends on the will of the Federal Reserve itself. If it shifts to the " (reserve) mechanism" policy, it actually requires maintaining a large balance sheet size. He predicted that the Federal Reserve "might take a step back first， and at least spend one year to decide what they want to do"， indicating that the possibility of a rapid acceleration or sharp shift towards large-scale quantitative tightening in the short term is relatively low. These remarks came at a time when the market was closely watching the potential policy changes that the new nominee for the Fed chair might bring. Although Wash had previously advocated for reducing the Fed's holdings, the latest statement from the treasury secretary has alleviated concerns about the possibility of a rapid tightening of monetary policy and an impact on market liquidity. Experts analyzed that President Trump hopes to significantly lower mortgage rates, but aggressive balance sheet reduction would be contrary to this goal and would be difficult to achieve while maintaining financial stability. Prudent policy approach and timetable Bessonnet clearly stated that Wash would be a very independent Federal Reserve chairman, and the specific operations of the balance sheet would be entirely decided by the Federal Reserve. However, he also provided a relatively clear expectation management, namely, one should not expect any rapid actions. Bessonet pointed out that if the Federal Reserve decides to adopt the so-called "充裕 (reserve) mechanism" policy， this would structurally require the central bank to maintain a large-scale balance sheet. Based on this logic， he speculated that the Federal Reserve policymakers might choose to remain inactive for the time being， "at least for a year" to review and plan the future path. The proposal of this time frame provides a longer buffer period for investors to assess the future liquidity environment. The evolution of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet Reviewing historical data, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve expanded significantly during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, aiming to lower long-term interest rates. This size reached a peak of 9 trillion US dollars in the summer of 2022. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve initiated a process known as quantitative tightening, allowing its held assets to mature without renewal, resulting in the size of the balance sheet dropping to 6.6 trillion US dollars by the end of 2025. However, in December last year, the Federal Reserve began to increase its bond holdings through a technical operation of purchasing treasury bonds. This move was aimed at ensuring that the financial system had sufficient liquidity, thereby effectively controlling its interest rate target range. This recent action indicates that maintaining the stability of system liquidity has become an important consideration in the current operations of the Federal Reserve. The balance between the nominee's position and policy goals One of the key points of market attention lies in the policy inclination of the nominee for the position of Federal Reserve Chairperson, Wash. Wash served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011. He once argued that the large asset holdings of the Federal Reserve distorted the financing situation in the economy and advocated for a significant reduction in the current holdings. However, this hawkish stance faces real challenges. According to Reuters, experts have pointed out that US President Trump has expressed his desire for mortgage interest rates to drop significantly. Reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet usually exerts upward pressure on long-term interest rates, which not only hinders the achievement of the goal of lowering mortgage interest rates but also makes it difficult to complete this task while maintaining financial stability. Bessonet's remarks suggest that under multiple policy goals and real constraints, even if Wash takes office, the aggressive balance sheet reduction plan may give way to a more prudent strategy. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Clause The market carries risks and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-02-09 -
View detailsWhy do the tech giants all invest heavily in OpenAI?
The so-called trillion-dollar financial financing is essentially a self-rescue "blood supply" that tech giants have to carry out in order to prevent the AI bubble from bursting. On February 4th, according to Ken Brown, a senior reporter from The Information, OpenAI is raising a financing amount of up to 100 billion US dollars. NVIDIA might plan to invest 30 billion, Amazon 20 billion, SoftBank 30 billion, and Microsoft also needs to contribute 10 billion. Under the outrageous valuation of $73 billion for OpenAI, Brown believes that the reasoning behind these smart people rushing to contribute money is quite straightforward. The banks no longer trust OpenAI. The giants have to do it themselves. Previously, OpenAI was very smart. It didn't borrow money itself but asked its partners such as Oracle, CoreWeave, and Vantage Data Center to use their balance sheets to borrow money to build data centers. OpenAI would then make contract payments in the future. OpenAI is akin to "dreaming of a pie", while partners take the pie to the bank to obtain a loan. However, this strategy is now facing significant market resistance. Ken Brown pointed out: Investors have made it clear that the amount of loans they are willing to provide to companies that rely on OpenAI to cover future expenses is limited. Now, investors in the bond market have also become aware of the situation. They have realized that OpenAI is spending money too rapidly and will not be able to afford rent in the future. As a result, investors have pushed up the financing costs of companies like Oracle, and even treated their bonds as "junk bonds". They realized that if OpenAI's future cash flow was unable to cover these debts, the "contractor" partners would face the risk of default. As the report stated: "This strategy may no longer be applicable, or it might become extremely costly." The ironic reality at present is that Oracle, in order to raise funds, was even forced to announce that it would sell stocks to make up the shortfall, directly heightening market anxiety. Mike Talaga, the head of credit research at Janus Henderson, said bluntly: "Oracle's willingness to dilute its equity to raise funds has taken the market by surprise." Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that in the face of Oracle's huge financing needs for its AI infrastructure, the balance sheets of Wall Street banks have nearly reached their limits. To reduce risk exposure and free up funds to continue lending, banks are urgently converting hundreds of billions of dollars in loans related to Oracle's data center projects into "securitized" ratings and selling them to insurance companies and private credit funds. When the banks stopped lending to the "construction workers" of OpenAI, the construction of OpenAI's data centers had to be halted. But why do the tech giants want to act as the "backstop"? When external financing channels tightened, the tech giants couldn't stand it any longer. If the data centers were shut down, OpenAI would be unable to train its models; unable to train the models, it wouldn't need Nvidia's chips or Microsoft's cloud services. Thus, this $100 billion financing turned into a "circular financing" model: Microsoft is offering money in order to secure the $250 billion Azure cloud order. Microsoft holds approximately 27% of the equity in the Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) of OpenAI, and OpenAI has agreed to purchase approximately $25 billion worth of services from Microsoft Azure. Amazon offers money in exchange for more cloud business. The aim is to secure those $38 billion cloud contracts. NVIDIA offers money in order to enable OpenAI to have the funds to come back and purchase its GPUs. This is a means to "stifle growth and prevent competition". This is a typical case of "I lend you money so that you can come and buy my stuff." Secondly, providing cash to OpenAI is to reassure the creditors of the supply chain. After the major funds entered, OpenAI gained the certainty of being able to pay its bills, and thus the supply chain financing would not be further raised in price by the bond market. For OpenAI, this was a window of opportunity: to wait for the revenue and profits to "grow large enough to self-finance", or at least to reopen the market financing channels. Furthermore, the tech giants have shifted the pressure of capital expenditures to "investment", avoiding making their financial statements look worse. Only in this way can their stock prices remain stable. Author Ken Brown emphasizes that a practical advantage of major companies directly investing in OpenAI is that these funds do not count towards their own capital expenditures and do not need to be raised through additional debt (at least for now). In the current situation where AI capital expenditures are closely watched by the market, this difference in accounting and financing methods can significantly alleviate short-term valuation pressure. The game where no one can afford to lose - the stool-tossing game Why can't OpenAI go bankrupt? Because the systemic risk is too high. Among the current stock prices of major tech companies, the majority show an "AI premium". If OpenAI were to collapse due to lack of funds to pay for electricity and purchase chips, the entire logic of the AI sector would collapse. Market founder Mark Montgomery described this as "a game of 'stealing stools'": "Unless OpenAI Ultraman can secure more funds to keep the balloons inflated, otherwise, if the situation collapses, the market value of major technology companies could shrink by 50% to 80%." To put it simply, the big players don't think OpenAI is worth 730 billion. Instead, if they don't spend this 100 billion to acquire something secure, the shrinkage in their own market value would be ten times that amount. Marathon Venture Capital partner Panos Papadopoulos wrote in the comment section: "If OpenAI reduces its spending commitments to the ultra-large cloud providers, it will lose a trillion dollars in market value. So, what does 100 billion dollars mean among friends?" The same "financing dance" was also seen in Musk's transaction. The article states that SpaceX will generate approximately $8 billion in EBITDA by 2025, while xAI burned through approximately $9.5 billion in the first nine months of last year. If these two companies merge, xAI's high consumption will be "hidden" within a larger cash flow shell - the logic is highly similar to "the giants using cash to secure OpenAI's financing chain". Risk Warning and Disclaimer Investment involves risks. Please be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether the opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this information is at your own risk.
2026-02-05 -
View detailsDalio warns: We are on the brink of a "capital war"
The tough stance of the Trump administration on the Greenland issue has further exacerbated the tension. This incident highlights the fragility of the current geopolitical environment and the potential impact of policy uncertainty on global capital flows. The volatility of tariff policies not only affects trade relations, but also undermines confidence in the capital market, increasing investors' concerns about capital controls and financial militarization. Gold remains the preferred hedging tool. Although the gold market has experienced a significant sell-off recently, Dalio remains convinced that gold is still the best place to store funds. By Tuesday, gold and silver had shown initial signs of recovery. "It cannot be judged on a daily basis," Dalio said when asked whether the recent price fluctuations should call into question the status of gold as the safest capital haven. He pointed out that gold has risen by approximately 65% compared to a year ago and has fallen by about 16% from its peak. Investors should not overly focus on short-term fluctuations. Dalio suggests that central banks, governments or sovereign wealth funds should consider maintaining a certain proportion of gold in their investment portfolios. "Gold is a very effective diversification tool that can hedge against underperforming parts of the investment portfolio," he said. He emphasized that gold, as a diversification investment tool, performs exceptionally well during difficult times and relatively poorly during prosperous periods, but overall it is an effective hedging asset. "I believe the most important thing is to have a diversified investment portfolio," Dalio concluded. Risk Warning and Disclaimer Clause
2026-02-04