Accelerate expansion! BlackRock is close to acquiring private credit management company HPS.

BlackRock has recently accelerated its expansion and reached an acquisition agreement with HPS, a private credit management company, to create an "alternative investment empire". According to media reports on Thursday, people familiar with the matter revealed that BlackRock has reached a preliminary acquisition agreement with HPS Investment Partners, which is expected to be officially announced after the Thanksgiving holiday. The transaction price may be as high as $12 billion, far exceeding HPS's previous planned IPO valuation of $10 billion. Founded in 2007, HPS is one of the largest private credit groups on Wall Street, and currently manages nearly $150 billion in assets, occupying an important position in the field of private credit. The acquisition will significantly enhance BlackRock's competitiveness in the private credit market, enabling it to better compete with competitors such as Ares, Apollo and Blackstone. BlackRock's offensive does not stop there, and it has already started continuous mergers and acquisitions. In October this year, the company acquired Global Infrastructure Partners, an infrastructure investment company, for $12.5 billion. In July, BlackRock also agreed to acquire Preqin, a British private equity market data group, for 2.55 billion pounds in cash. In addition, BlackRock is also negotiating cooperation with hedge fund giant Millennium Management and may acquire a minority stake in the latter. These measures all reflect the strategic intention of BlackRock founder Larry Fink to expand the alternative investment business map. Behind BlackRock's M&A frenzy, it is optimistic about the huge potential of the alternative investment market. Compared with traditional ETF and other products, alternative investment can bring higher management fee income. At present, BlackRock's alternative investment assets have reached 450 billion US dollars. In recent years, with the traditional banks gradually withdrawing from some core loan businesses due to regulatory pressure, alternative investment fields such as private credit have ushered in rapid growth. BlackRock's acquisition of HPS is precisely because of its broad prospects in this market. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Wang Wei rang the bell at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again.

Repeat 2021! Bitcoin led the surge in risk assets, and US stocks were afraid of

As the price of Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark, its rising momentum not only drives the share price of cryptocurrency-related companies to soar, but also raises the market's concern that the stock market may overheat: Is it repeating the carnival in 2021? Is it far from the crash of 2022? The market frenzy in 2021 brought short-term and huge profits to investors, but then it triggered a cruel bear market, and many new investors suffered huge losses. Nowadays, the valuations of some stock markets are extremely high again, such as online used car retailer Carvana, whose share price has risen by 430.71% so far this year, and the valuation of the S&P 500 index has climbed to more than 22 times the expected profit in the next 12 months for the first time since 2021. George Cipolloni, portfolio manager of Penn Mutual Asset Management, said: "I am worried that the market will experience another round of unsustainable madness and people will be hurt. Although it is difficult to say whether the market fanaticism has reached a dangerous level, it is certain that compared with a month ago, the enthusiasm and bubble level of the market have increased significantly. " On Friday, according to some people on Wall Street quoted by MarketWatch, investors' optimism may be close to "excessive". Citigroup's Levkovich index, which is used to measure stock market sentiment, has risen sharply in the past few weeks, prompting the bank to include emotional factors as one of the reasons for being cautious about the future direction of the market. However, although some current trading behaviors are similar to those in 2021, there are many differences between the macroeconomic background of that year and the present. In 2021, interest rates and bond yields were at historical lows. At present, the yield of 10-year US bonds is about 4.43%, much higher than 1.5% in December 2021. Mohannad Aama, portfolio manager of Beam Capital Management, said that the current higher rate of return undoubtedly increased the risk of the market. At the same time, neither the stock market nor Bitcoin "succumbed" to the pressure brought by higher borrowing costs, but rose with the enthusiasm of "Trump Trading". But it also makes the prices of these two assets too perfect, which means that if corporate profits fail to meet investors' expectations, or President-elect Trump fails to fulfill his promise to create a national bitcoin reserve, these two markets may be in trouble. Last Friday, the US stock market collectively closed up, with the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq index and Dow Jones index all rising that week, and the Dow Jones index set a new closing record. Aama said: "The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index both reflect a lot of good news. If these good news are not realized, it will be troublesome. " Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

"Trump deal" has risen to the top? Wall Street is most concerned about: How serious Trump is about tariffs?

The "Trump Deal" went out of fashion, and the market began to focus on the risks of Trump's election, namely tariffs, deficits and overvaluation. As Trump has appointed new cabinet members, analysts have become more and more clear about the details of the policy, and this wave of gains in US stocks has subsided. What the market is most concerned about now is the tariff issue: How serious will Trump be about tariffs? Tariffs are widely regarded as the root of inflation. If tariffs are implemented as scheduled, inflation may reach the highest level since the 1930s. Kevin Khang, head of global economic research at Pioneer Group, warned that Trump's tenure may lead to inflation, on the one hand, because of tariffs, and on the other hand, because the expulsion of immigrants will lead to tight supply in the labor market, especially in industries with long-term manpower shortages such as construction and hotels. In addition, the forecast of economic growth is more cautious, but how much impact potential tariffs may have depends on the actual performance of the policy. Since the beginning of this year, the S&P 500 index has soared by 25%, boosted by the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. But with more and more data showing that the US economy is strong, Fed officials openly question whether further interest rate cuts are needed at present. Derivatives traders are currently pricing that they will cut interest rates several times in 2025. If the interest rate cuts fail, US stocks may fall. In addition to the tariff issue, overvaluation also makes investors feel uneasy. Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 index will rise by 10% next year, mainly due to strong profit growth. But David Kostin, equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, also warned that changes in immigration policy, tariffs and fiscal policies may lead to rising inflation. The bank is pessimistic about the long-term prospects of US stocks, and expects the annualized return of the S&P 500 index to be only 3% in the next decade, mainly because the stock market has become expensive by many indicators. If we want to continue to maintain amazing returns, profits need to grow rapidly or valuations need to be pushed to new heights. Goldman Sachs said that the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is now at the 97th percentile since 1930. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Will Wright Heze's stay make Trump's tariff policy change dramatically?

Wright Heze's cabinet position is pending. Does it mean that Trump will give up the radical tariff policy? On Tuesday, November 19th, EST, Trump nominated Howard Tonuk as the Secretary of Commerce. This arrangement puzzled trade policy observers around the world. It was widely believed that Trump would choose Robert Lighthizer, who served as the US trade representative in the previous term. As one of the most loyal and important members of Trump's economic team, Wright Heze is the designer of many protectionist proposals. During Trump's campaign, Wright Heze has been promoting the "large-scale tariff increase policy" and was once considered to be the Minister of Commerce, the Minister of Finance, and even the "Trade Tsar". However, when announcing Blut Nick as Commerce Secretary, Trump also said that Lou Tonuk would be in charge of the "tariff and trade agenda" and would be "directly responsible for the Office of the US Trade Representative". The analysis believes that if Trump does not choose Wright Heze to hold an important economic position, it will mean that Trump may not honor some radical trade proposals he put forward during the campaign, such as 20% global tariffs. Many people support Wright Heze's return Wright Heze may be excluded from the core economic decision-makers of the new government, which has aroused pressure from all sides. Matthew Schmitz, the founder of Compact, a populist right-wing magazine, wrote a column in The New York Times, imploring Trump to bring Wright Heze back to the government. Peter Harrell, former international trade adviser of Biden's administration, also supported Wright Heze's return, saying that he was "far-sighted, good at managing the government and proficient in negotiation, and knew how to use exclusion clauses to mitigate some unexpected negative effects". Bill Lei Ensi, a former business official in the Clinton administration and now a senior consultant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said: "I thought that if Wright Heze could not return to the office of the Trade Representative, he would be the trade czar of the White House in some form, but now it seems that Lu Tonuk will play this role. So, what is left of Wright Heze?" At present, Wright Heze did not respond to the reporter's request for comment, but his allies said that he may still hold a senior position in the new government. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

The core logic of "Trump Trading"-I understand that Wang will listen to the market, but can this stand?

Some people think that the logic behind the "Trump Deal" is that Trump will listen to the market in order to integrate into Wall Street. But will this be the wishful thinking of the market? Recently, David Bahnsen, founder of Bahnsen Group, made an optimistic prediction about Trump's return to the White House. He thought that this might be beneficial to the financial market, because Trump is very eager to integrate into Manhattan's financial elite: "So much so that he didn't dare to endanger their wealth ... the financial market is a recognition for him." However, some people have questioned that over-excited investors are pushing up the stock price and the market may be liquidated. Bitcoin soared, bank stocks soared ... The market fell into a carnival. Trump's victory seems to make Wall Street too excited. Both the "currency circle" and the stock market are boiling, and the market shows expectations for Trump's promised tax cuts and deregulation policies. On the one hand, bitcoin prices have soared due to Trump's support position. On the other hand, investors are full of expectations for the wave of corporate mergers and acquisitions that Trump may bring, and they have snapped up the stocks of large banks. At the same time, other stocks also rose. Trump's proposal to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and abolish ten old regulations every time a new regulation is implemented further boosted market sentiment. Although the rising yield of US debt shows that there are still some investors who are worried that a bigger budget deficit, large-scale expulsion of illegal immigrants and huge tariffs will lead to inflation, optimists say, "I don't expect him to keep his promise". It is Trump's fickle style that can reassure them: "His habits mean that he will give up the most destructive plan." According to the Wall Street executives quoted by Bloomberg, one of them, a former banker who has worked with Trump for many years, said that deregulation and the possible stepping down of the Federal Trade Commission Chairman Lina Khan would make the bank gain more profits and conduct a series of M&A activities. Another executive in the field of private equity said that inflation is actually vague and far away from them. Things may not be as expected and will be awkward. But is this logic really tenable? Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, warned that overexcited investors are pushing up the stock price: "I won't be surprised if the market is liquidated one day, but it will be too late because it has caused losses." Nathalie Molinario, co-founder and president of Known, also expressed concern about the possible impact of Trump's plan. She said that tax cuts can't make up for policies that are harmful to the environment and economy, while "large-scale expulsion of key laborers will bring (bad) economic consequences". Some analysts pointed out that this round of "Trump Deal" is undoubtedly a circular logic. If things don't develop as expected, it may seem embarrassing or even worse. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

The Fed model "alarmed" for the first time in ten years. Are US stocks overvalued?

The Fed model "alerted the police" for the first time in a decade, but analysts thought the problem was not serious. On November 18th, Mark Hulbert, a regular contributor to MarketWatch, wrote that at present, the profitability of the S&P 500 index is 3.90%, while the yield of 10-year US bonds is 4.46%, which is half a percentage point higher-the last significant negative value appeared during the financial crisis in 2008-2009. According to the Fed model, the current market conditions are unfavorable to the stock market-the Fed model is a famous market timing model, which compares the profit rate of the stock market (that is, the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio) with the yield of 10-year US bonds. The Fed believes that when the profit rate is higher than the yield of 10-year US bonds, the market conditions are favorable to the stock market, and vice versa. However, Hulbert said that investors don't need to worry too much, because the Fed model actually draws a conclusion by comparing the actual rate of return with the nominal rate of return, and the long-term performance is weak, and the comparison results are of little significance. Hulbert analyzed the data of the Fed model since 1871, and compared the profit rate with the model to predict the inflation-adjusted total return of the stock market in the following 1, 5 and 10 years. As shown in the following table, in each indicator and time period, the table lists R squared, which measures the ability of one data series (in this case, the profit rate or the Fed model) to explain or predict another data series (in this case, the stock market). In each case, the forecasting ability of using profit rate alone is stronger than that of the Fed model after deducting the yield of 10-year US bonds. Although the Fed model "alarms", US stocks may not be overvalued. According to the Fed model, the US stock market has been overvalued at present, but Hulbert said that this is not necessarily accurate because the model is not accurate: Hulbert said that the Fed model is actually comparing apples and oranges-the stock market's rate of return is the real rate of return, and historically corporate profits usually grow faster when inflation is high; The 10-year yield of US debt is nominal and does not fluctuate with inflation. Therefore, the Fed model actually draws a conclusion by comparing the actual rate of return with the nominal rate of return, and the comparison result naturally has little significance. Cliff Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management, published a paper entitled "Against the Fed Model" twenty years ago, which is probably the most authoritative theoretical and empirical paper against the Fed model. The paper wrote: "The Fed model seems reasonable, but it doesn't actually work. The attraction of this "common sense" has convinced many Wall Street strategists and media commentators. However, this common sense is mostly misleading, probably because it confuses actual income with nominal income (that is, monetary illusion). " However, Hulbert also warned that although the Fed model cannot prove that the US stock market is overvalued, it does not mean that the US stock market is not overvalued. Investors may have other evidence to prove that the US stock market is indeed overvalued. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Strong dollar puts pressure on global markets, and the bigger test of emerging markets is behind.

The soaring dollar is hitting emerging markets and commodities hard. As the asset that benefited most from Trump's victory, the US dollar has continued to rise recently, putting pressure on emerging markets (EM) and commodities. Robin Brooks, a senior researcher at Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said that global trade is denominated in dollars, which means that when the dollar rises, the purchasing power of emerging markets will decline. MarketWatch believes that the rapid appreciation of the US dollar has led to the outflow of foreign capital and capital in emerging markets, and it is more difficult for emerging market borrowers to repay dollar-denominated debts. Since election day, the ICE US dollar index (which measures the exchange rate between the US dollar and six major currencies) has risen by 2.1%, and reached its highest point in nearly a year at the close of last Wednesday. As of press time, the US dollar index DXY reported 106.68. Kevin Dempter, an analyst at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in a report on November 14th: "The dollar has been oversubscribed and is challenging the resistance level, while many metals and emerging markets have been oversold and are trying to stay above the key support level." The rise of the dollar has hit emerging markets and commodities hard. Since the election day, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has fallen by 4.7%, and it has fallen by 8.8% since its recent high on October 7. Brooks said that the rise of the US dollar and the devaluation of the domestic currency will have a huge impact on emerging markets for two reasons: First of all, the market regards Trump's imposition of tariffs and all the unstable factors it brings as a negative signal of global economic growth. Secondly, global trade is denominated in dollars, which means that when the dollar rises, the purchasing power of emerging markets will decline. In addition to the above reasons, MarketWatch believes that the rapid appreciation of the US dollar has led to the outflow of foreign capital and capital in emerging markets, making it more difficult for borrowers in emerging markets to repay debts denominated in US dollars. Stephen Innes, a partner of SPI Asset Management, said that if the dollar continues to rise, the Asian market will be most affected. The soaring dollar has dealt a heavy blow to this region, crushing local currency debt, which Innes believes is the pillar of emerging markets in Asia. Brooks said that once Trump came to power and implemented the tariff policy, a large number of currencies linked to the US dollar in emerging markets were particularly vulnerable, and many currencies with fixed exchange rates faced the risk of explosive depreciation, such as those of Argentina, Egypt and Turkey. Therefore, these countries should allow their currencies to float freely as a buffer against possible external shocks. In addition to emerging markets, the expensive dollar also puts pressure on commodities denominated in dollars, because it makes commodities more expensive for other currency users. Since election day, copper futures have fallen by 8.7%, which is more than 21% lower than the all-time high set this year. Other metals and oil futures also suffered heavy losses, and gold also showed a correction after setting many historical records this year. Dempter said that through the tracking of the Van Eck Gold Mining ETF, it was found that the shares of gold mining companies have been significantly retraced and seriously oversold, which is close to the 200-day moving average. If it falls below this support level, it will become a signal that the gold market has been divested. However, although the US dollar continues to be strong, if the US dollar remains seasonally weak in December, emerging markets and commodities can breathe a sigh of relief. Mark Newton, chief strategist of technology strategy company Fundstrat, believes that this situation is likely to happen-in the past 10 years, December has been the worst month for the ICE US dollar index, with an average decline of 0.95%. Newton said: "Overall, although the EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) has been in a downward trend in the past month, it may stabilize in December, because the dollar may begin a one-month retracement." Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

Is Trump really good for Bitcoin? may not

As a supporter of Bitcoin, is Trump really good for Bitcoin? On November 15th, EST, James Mackintosh, a senior market columnist of The Wall Street Journal, wrote that Bitcoin may not benefit from looser regulation, because Bitcoin itself is hardly subject to regulatory pressure. After deregulation, the market will increase the demand for other cryptocurrencies, which may lead to capital outflow from the Bitcoin market. Mackintosh explained that looser regulation pushes commodity prices up by attracting more buyers, especially for cryptocurrencies, which have almost no fundamental support and are completely determined by demand driven by supply and investor sentiment, so more buyers mean higher prices. However, Bitcoin, as the "mother currency" of cryptocurrency, is somewhat special: Unlike most other currencies, Bitcoin is regarded as a commodity, not a cryptocurrency. Therefore, Bitcoin is almost free from regulatory pressure. Therefore, when Trump relaxed the supervision of cryptocurrencies after taking office, the market demand for other cryptocurrencies increased, which may lead to the outflow of funds in the bitcoin market. In addition, Mackintosh also refuted three reasons why some investors are bullish on Bitcoin at present: First, as mentioned above, Trump's relaxation of supervision over the encryption market is not good for Bitcoin; Secondly, the "strategic national bitcoin reserve" promised by Trump does not meet the economic needs of the United States and may not be realized; Finally, Bitcoin is not a good inflation hedging tool and cannot hedge the big inflation that Trump may bring. At present, the total market value of Bitcoin has surpassed all companies except the top six listed companies in the United States. As of press time, Bitcoin rose 0.86% today to $88,014.59/piece. Mackintosh: The three reasons for bullish bitcoin are all wrong. Then, why has Bitcoin increased its market value by nearly 500 billion dollars in less than two weeks since the election night, up by nearly one third? On the contrary, the "cottage currency" and the second largest cryptocurrency Ethereum, which should have risen, have fallen behind? There are three common explanations: The first explanation is "obvious". Trump explicitly supports cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency, so many investors buy it directly. Of course, as mentioned above, Mackintosh has refuted this view, and what is good for cryptocurrency is not necessarily good for Bitcoin. The second explanation is that Trump promised to build a "strategic national bitcoin reserve" during the campaign, which some investors believe can support bitcoin prices. There are even rumors that other countries may buy bitcoin in advance before the Trump administration launches the bitcoin purchase plan. However, Mackintosh does not agree with this view, because the creation of bitcoin reserves does not meet the economic needs of the United States. The United States does not rely on foreign exchange reserves to support the US dollar, but uses "the credit of the US government" to support the US dollar. Mackintosh said that the strategic currency reserve is for those countries whose currency exchange rate is unstable, or for those countries that need to convert their trade surplus into overseas assets-the United States obviously does not belong to these two types of countries. Mackintosh added that even with this need, would Trump really want to transfer American resources from spending or tax cuts to buy bitcoin? Alex Thorn, research director of Galaxy Digital, agrees with Mackintosh, saying: "If the Ministry of Finance or the Federal Reserve says they want to buy Bitcoin to support the dollar, it is very bad for the dollar, just like if they say they want to buy lollipops or toothpaste to support the dollar. The dollar is supported by the' complete trust and credit' of the United States. " The third explanation is that the bond market has been betting that Trump's policies will lead to higher inflation, and some bitcoin buyers believe that Bitcoin can hedge inflation. However, Mackintosh said that Bitcoin has never been a good inflation hedging tool-Bitcoin is more closely related to speculative stocks than to traditional inflation hedging tools such as gold or inflation-linked bonds. Mackintosh wrote: "Bitcoin relies more on animal spirits than economic analysis. No wonder it likes Trump." Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

A number of senior Fed officials expressed their views: How much can it be reduced? Really not sure.

After the release of CPI in October, which was in line with expectations overnight, Fed officials made speeches, saying that "uncertainty" has become a frequent word. The increased uncertainty has led officials to be more cautious in cutting interest rates and may suspend the interest rate cut cycle. On Wednesday, several Fed officials reiterated on Wednesday that they were very uncertain about the extent to which the Fed needed to lower interest rates, which highlighted the difficulty for policymakers to maintain economic stability in the face of complex environment. At the energy conference jointly sponsored by Kansas City and Dallas Reserve Bank, Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman schmid said in a speech: Although it is time to begin to reduce monetary policy restrictions, it remains to be seen how much interest rates will fall or where they may eventually stabilize. It is worth mentioning that other Fed officials have also expressed similar caution. Dallas Fed President Logan said that the Fed will cut interest rates further, but the neutral level is uncertain. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said that future economic data should be evaluated "wisely and patiently" when considering further interest rate cuts; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali believes that it will take another month or six weeks to analyze the data before making any decision. Neutral interest rate or higher, but not sure how high. At present, many people think that the neutral interest rate (that is, the interest rate level that will neither stimulate nor inhibit economic growth) may have risen since the outbreak of the epidemic, but no one has confidence in setting my neutral interest rate level. Logan said in another speech at the same meeting: The uncertainty of neutral interest rate has also increased, perhaps because of the new structural changes in the economy, and it takes time to conduct a comprehensive evaluation. Logan said: The widely referenced model sets the neutral federal funds rate between 2.74% and 4.6%, and the middle point of the Fed's policy interest rate is currently at the top of this range. She believes that the Fed will cut interest rates further, but it should be "cautious" at present. Inflation is moving in the right direction, but more data is needed to evaluate it. The report released overnight showed that the CPI of the United States in October was basically in line with economists' expectations, and the spokesman of the Federal Reserve generally expressed confidence that inflation was still on a downward trend and moving towards the target of 2%. Investors also moderately increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut again in December. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali believes that: I think inflation is moving in the right direction, and I am confident about it, but we need to wait, and it will take another month or six weeks to analyze the data before making any decision. Kashkali warned in an interview on Tuesday that if inflation unexpectedly rises before December, it may make the Fed suspend interest rate cuts. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said: Recent information shows that inflation may stagnate on the downward track, and even the risk of rising has risen. The data shows that the economy is "stronger than before, and may even be much stronger than before", and several inflation indicators are "slightly rising". With inflation still higher than the Fed's target of 2%, officials should keep the policy "moderately limited". Although inflation is expected to eventually fall back to 2% in the medium term, officials should evaluate economic data "wisely and patiently" when considering further interest rate cuts. Risk warning and exemption clause The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. This paper does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.