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View detailsWhat does it mean that the US stock market and gold have both reached new highs?
Spot gold also soared, reaching a record high of $3,748.84 per ounce at one point. According to the Chui Feng Trading Desk, a research report released by Deutsche Bank on September 22nd holds that although risky assets have shown significant resilience recently, the market is far from reaching a "perfect pricing" state, and the view that "there is almost no further room for the market to rise is wrong." For instance, the record high gold prices, persistent inflation and tariff concerns, the slowdown in the labor market, and expectations of central bank interest rate cuts all reflect that the market has factored in a large number of potential downside risks. Deutsche Bank elaborated on five reasons why the market is far from being "perfectly priced" : The first core argument of the Deutsche Bank report is that the gold price is at a historical high, which is a typical sign of market fear rather than extreme optimism. The report emphasizes that gold, as an asset that does not pay dividends or coupons, usually gains more appeal when investors seek safety. Therefore, historically, high gold prices have often been accompanied by economic turmoil and uncertainty. This stands in sharp contrast to the dot-com bubble period, when the actual gold price hovered at a multi-decade low, reflecting investors' extreme optimism in chasing high-return risky assets. According to the data of the US inflation swap, the interest rate of the 2-year US inflation swap closed at 2.92% last Friday, which means that the market expects inflation to remain above the target of the Federal Reserve in the coming years. Third, concerns over tariffs persist The report mentioned that in addition to the tariffs already implemented, the United States is still reviewing industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and critical minerals, which brings the possibility of further imposing tariffs. These outstanding risks are negative factors that the market cannot ignore and have already been reflected in the pricing. Four. Concerns emerge in the US labor market: Signs of slowing employment growth and recession At present, the six-month average growth rate of non-farm payrolls in the United States has dropped to 64,000, hitting a new low since the beginning of this economic cycle. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since the end of 2021. Furthermore, recent benchmark revisions suggest that the employment data for 2024-2025 May be weaker than previously expected. V. Expectations of interest rate cuts by central banks such as the Federal Reserve: Not a sign of a strong economy The Federal Reserve's futures market has even priced in a further interest rate cut of more than 100 basis points by the end of 2026. The research report points out that this expectation of interest rate cuts is not a signal of a strong economy, but rather more reflects investors' concerns that economic growth may slow down, believing that interest rate cuts are necessary to stimulate the economy.
2025-09-23 -
View detailsThe market has seriously underestimated southbound funds. Goldman Sachs: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is undervalued
On September 18th, the Chasing Wind Trading Desk reported that the Goldman Sachs stock research team released a research report indicating that the share prices of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have underperformed the broader market in the past month. The main reason is that the management has given a relatively pessimistic guidance on investment returns in the second half of 2025. Goldman Sachs thus raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from 2025 to 2027. At the same time, we maintain the "buy" rating on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raise the target price by 4% from HK $524 to HK $544, and believe that the current share price is significantly undervalued relative to the level of trading activity. The report indicates that southbound funds are influencing the Hong Kong market in an unprecedented manner. The most crucial driving force behind this is precisely the southbound funds that have been continuously setting new highs. Whether it is the net purchase scale, the average daily trading volume, or the contribution to the total trading volume of Hong Kong stocks, southbound funds have demonstrated strong vitality. More importantly, southbound funds have driven the market value of Hong Kong stocks to achieve a year-on-year growth of approximately 50%, and both the turnover rate of southbound funds and the overall market have reached historical peaks. However, Goldman Sachs emphasized that based on the asset diversification needs of mainland investors, the unique scarcity of the Hong Kong stock market, and the significant valuation discount (higher dividend yields), the inflow and increased participation of southbound funds will be a structural long-term trend rather than a short-term speculative behavior. It is precisely based on confidence in the structural growth of southbound funds and the recent strong trading volume data that Goldman Sachs has comprehensively upgraded its financial model for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Earnings per share forecast for 2025: Raised from HK $12.63 to HK $12.97. Earnings per share forecast for 2027: Raised from HK $13.96 to HK $14.45. The report stated that by adopting a three-stage dividend discount model (DDM) and maintaining the forecast P/E ratio for 2026 at 40 times, the target price for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over the next 12 months was set at HK $544, an increase of 4% from the previous HK $524. Historical valuation comparison: Currently, the share price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange corresponds to its forward price-earnings ratio, which is slightly lower than the median level of the historical cycle, but its profit growth prospects remain strong. In conclusion, Goldman Sachs believes that the market's pricing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's share prices has not fully reflected the structural growth dividends brought by southbound funds. Risk Warning and Disclaimer
2025-09-19 -
View detailsThe United States continues to ease regulations on digital assets, with the SEC significantly lowering the application threshold for
On September 17 local time, the SEC voted to approve the rule change proposals of the three major national stock exchanges, clearing the way for the full opening of the digital asset ETF market. This decision marks a major shift in the regulatory policy for digital assets in the United States and will pave the way for various spot ETFs of cryptocurrencies, ranging from Solana to Dogcoin. The market expects that the first batch of products to benefit will be ETFs tracking Solana and XRP. Asset management companies began submitting applications for these products to the SEC over a year ago, but the regulatory authorities had previously only approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The general listing standards have officially come into effect The new rules have established universal listing standards for digital asset and other spot commodity ETFs. Asset management companies and exchanges must meet these standards to obtain approval for new spot crypto ETFs. Teddy Fusaro, president of Bitwise Asset Management, said: The approval efficiency has been significantly enhanced SEC Chair Paul Atkins described the committee members' approval in a press release as a move to promote innovation and reduce barriers to digital asset products. This statement reflects the Trump administration's more friendly regulatory attitude towards digital assets. He expects that the first batch of products could be launched on the market as early as October. The market widely expects that ETFs tracking Solana and XRP will be among the first products approved under the new rules. Asset management companies began submitting these applications to the SEC over a year ago, but the regulatory authorities have so far only approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Steve McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, which has multiple pending products, said: "The door is open, but there is still a lot of work to be done." Feinour pointed out: "Not every token currently meets the requirements, but the SEC's approval will open the floodgates." This indicates that although the regulatory threshold has been lowered, digital assets still need to meet specific standards to obtain approval for ETF products. The market involves risks. Please invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the individual user's specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this is at your own risk.
2025-09-18 -
View detailsOne picture to understand: Who will own the New OpenAI
On September 17th, according to The technology media The Information, OpenAI is completely changing its equity structure through corporate restructuring, shifting from a non-profit limited return model to a traditional corporate equity system. The restructuring plan still needs to be approved by Microsoft and the attorneys general of two states. Once approved, new investors including Thrive Capital and SoftBank will no longer be constrained by the current return cap structure and will be able to obtain equity returns that match their huge investments. Microsoft acquired the largest stake As OpenAI's most important strategic partner, Microsoft will hold approximately 28% of the shares after the reorganization, making it the largest single external shareholder. However, as previously reported, Microsoft's demands on OpenAI are not merely about equity. Employees and non-profit organizations have gained an important position This arrangement reflects the recognition of the value of talents, especially against the backdrop of fierce competition for key talents in the AI field. Under the current structure, the non-profit organization is entitled to all the remaining profits generated by the profit-making sector after other shareholders have received nearly 275 billion US dollars in profits. The earliest investors in OpenAI's profit-making division, including Khosla Ventures, the University of Michigan, the Reid Hoffman Foundation, Paul Buchheit, the founder of Gmail, and Y Combinator, will jointly acquire a low-digit equity stake. These investors injected a total of 194 million US dollars into the department in 2019. Although the shareholding ratio is relatively small, considering the investment amount and time, this still represents a considerable investment return. Some of the latest OpenAI shareholders will also have significant shares. Earlier this year, OpenAI acquired Io, a mysterious hardware startup founded by former Apple designer Jony Ive, for $5 billion in stocks. Based on a valuation of $500 billion, this means that investors including Thrive Capital, Emerson Collective and SV Angel collectively own OpenAI shares worth $7.75 billion. Risk Warning and Disclaimer
2025-09-17 -
View detailsA major Wall Street bank has modeled Ethereum for the first time: predicting a price of $4,300 by the end of the year
On September 15th, according to the Chuifeng Trading Desk, Citibank released its latest research report, setting a year-end target price of $4,300 for Ethereum (ETH), which is lower than the current spot price. Fundamental value: Citigroup's model shows that the current price of Ethereum has exceeded the level that its network activity can support, possibly driven by the recent inflow of ETF funds and the market's excessive excitement over use cases such as tokenization. There is a risk of overvaluation in the short-term price. Macroeconomic environment: Citigroup pointed out that in the current forecast, the impact of the macroeconomy on Ethereum is minimal. However, once an economic recession occurs, macro factors will become the key force driving the decline of Ethereum. Citibank believes that, unlike Bitcoin's positioning as "digital gold", the value of Ethereum is more closely linked to its network activities (that is, its usage as a smart contract platform). The activities of the Ethereum ecosystem mainly focus on the L2 network. The Citigroup model assumes that the value transmission rate of L2 activities to the Ethereum mainnet is 30%. Even under this assumption, the current price of Ethereum is still higher than the valuation based on the combined activities of L1 and L2. Stronger but smaller ETF capital flows: The leverage effect is significant, but the total amount is hard to match that of Bitcoin The report observed that the large-scale purchases by digital asset Treasury companies and the influx of ETF funds have been the key drivers behind Ethereum's recent outperformance over the broader market. However, Citigroup expects the amount of funds flowing into Ethereum to be smaller than that into Bitcoin. The logic is that the market capitalization ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin, which is approximately 25%, might be the upper limit for the allocation of new funds in the short term, as new investors are more inclined to start their allocation from the most well-known Bitcoin. The macroeconomic environment, especially the stock market and the US dollar, is a traditional force influencing the prices of cryptocurrencies. However, in Citigroup's benchmark scenario, macro factors are not the decisive force. The report indicates that although Citigroup's US equity team predicts a slight upward potential in the stock market before the end of the year, with the S&P 500 targeting 6,600 points, this is based on Ethereum's historical beta coefficient, which only contributes a weak upward drive of 35 basis points to its price forecast. Citigroup predicts a target price of $4,300 by the end of the year Benchmark scenario ($4300) : Assuming there is a moderate inflow of funds before the end of the year, the market's excitement about Ethereum network use cases is maintained, supporting the price to be slightly lower than the current level. Bear market scenario ($2200) : Mainly dominated by recessionary macro factors, especially the decline in the stock market, which leads to a reversal in market sentiment and a price drop to a level only supported by current network activity. In the short term, there is a risk that prices will be pushed up by market sentiment. In the long term, whether Ethereum can fulfill its promise of being the "world computer" depends crucially on whether it can effectively capture the value of the prosperity of the L2 ecosystem. The market involves risks. Please invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the individual user's specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this is at your own risk.
2025-09-16 -
View detailsBank of America: Emerging markets will witness more "capital inflows" early next year
David Hauner, the head of the bank's global emerging markets fixed income strategy, said that even small-scale diversified capital flows from the United States will have a significant impact on emerging markets. Emerging market bonds have delivered a return of nearly 9% for investors this year, surpassing the 7.5% increase of developed market bonds over the same period, according to Bloomberg indicators. The US dollar index has dropped by more than 8% this year and is on track to record its biggest annual decline since 2017. The Federal Reserve's expectation of resuming interest rate cuts this month, coupled with concerns over Trump's tariffs and fiscal policies, is dragging down the performance of the US dollar. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of the week ending September 2, hedge funds and other speculative investors placed approximately $5 billion in bearish bets on the US dollar. These investors have held a negative position in the US dollar since the beginning of April. Bank of America maintains an optimistic view of emerging markets, a position it has held since the first quarter. Hauner pointed out that emerging market asset classes will be supported by the weakening of the US dollar, the space for further interest rate cuts by local central banks, and the historically low allocation of global funds. Brazil, Mexico and others will be the main beneficiaries Analysts predict that those global funds that previously remained on the sidelines will increase their investment in developing markets, helping emerging markets gain an edge in competition with developed markets. The market involves risks. Please invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the individual user's specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this is at your own risk.
2025-09-15 -
View detailsIs the era of all-weather trading coming? Blackrock explores tokenization of ETFs
On September 12th, Bloomberg reported that informed sources revealed that the company is studying how to tokenize funds linked to real-world assets such as stocks. Blackrock has had a successful precedent in the field of digital assets before. It is reported that the tokenization of ETFs may bring about changes such as extended trading hours beyond the regular hours of Wall Street, easier access to US products for overseas investors, and new uses as collateral in crypto networks. The core advantages of tokenization technology In addition, tokenization can also make American financial products more accessible to overseas investors and create potential new uses as collateral in the crypto network. Blackrock has always been an active promoter of digital assets. In addition to the BUIDL fund, the company has also tested tokenized fund share trading on jpmorgan Chase's Onyx (now known as Kinexys) infrastructure and positioned itself as an early adopter of digital settlement models. Interest in tokenization within the industry is on the rise. Money market funds from companies such as Franklin Templeton and BlackRock have paved the way for this, and ETFs, as relatively flexible investment tools already designed, may become the testing ground for this transformation. Facing settlement system and regulatory challenges However, the regulatory environment is becoming more lenient. During the Trump era, policymakers were open to projects that allowed companies to test blockchain-based markets in controlled environments. According to a previous article by Jianwen, the CEO of Nasdaq has recently publicly stated that Nasdaq will move towards tokenization of stocks, directly embedding blockchain technology into the core securities trading system, rather than being limited to over-the-counter or affiliated markets. Trading hours will gradually move towards five days a week, 24 hours a day, or even seven days a day in the future. Risk Warning and Disclaimer
2025-09-12 -
View detailsWhen the Federal Reserve is "extremely dovish", the possibility of gold and the US stock market rising together is underestimated
According to the Chuifeng Trading Desk, Derome Robinson, an analyst at Citigroup, and his team recently released a research report stating that during the "reflation" period when the Federal Reserve's policy stance tends to be dovish, the positive correlation between gold and risky assets such as stocks will significantly increase, and their prices often rise in tandem. However, the current market's pricing of this correlation is clearly insufficient. Against such a macro backdrop, the historical linkage pattern between gold and risky assets is making a comeback. Citigroup's analysis shows that the six-month implied correlation between gold and risky assets such as the S&P 500 index currently reflected in the options market is far lower than what actually occurs in a similar dovish environment. The report says it "looks cheap". Market pricing indicates that the Federal Reserve is clearly dovish The report indicates that the indicator is currently at a low level, suggesting that the Fed's pricing is "overly loose" relative to the fundamentals. In this policy-driven "fiscal domination" environment, the correlations among assets will undergo a systematic transformation. Citigroup pointed out that the correlation between gold and risky assets (such as the S&P 500 index and the Nikkei Index) as well as risky currencies (such as the Australian dollar and the British pound) often becomes more positive than the implicit pricing in the market. Therefore, Citigroup tends to view gold as a tool to hedge against "higher term premiums or policy failures". Based on this logic, the report holds that the combination of "rising gold + rising stocks" is reasonable. The market involves risks. Please invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the individual user's specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this is at your own risk.
2025-09-11 -
View detailsWhy did Alibaba ask Autonavi to
This move is interpreted as another significant move by Alibaba to enter the local life service market following Taobao Flash Purchase. China News Service and Jwnews learned that before Alibaba's business adjustment was made public on the 10th, the confidentiality was quite high. Many media outlets mentioned keywords such as "in-store", "restarting Koubei", and "group buying" in related reports. On the 9th, China News Service and Jwnews learned from informed sources that this major business release is related to "Autonavi's in-store business", rather than "restarting Koubei". Gaode introduced that when users open the "Street Sweeping List", they will see rankings corresponding to different types of behaviors, including the "Tire Wear List" that shows long-distance special trips, the "Repeat Customer List" that shows multiple visits, as well as various rankings such as local favorites, city characteristic experiences, and high-scoring fireworks stores. Each category will be updated daily based on dynamic data. On the evening of August 29th, during Alibaba's first-quarter 2026 fiscal year analyst conference call, Jiang Fan, CEO of Alibaba's E-commerce Business Group, stated that the Taobao Flash Purchase business has reached a certain scale, with approximately 150 million active users every day. Among these users, some have the need for in-store pickup or in-store group buying. Therefore, Alibaba will start from the perspective of meeting users' demands, especially considering the synergy with offline home delivery services, to provide users with more diverse services. He disclosed that currently, Alibaba is also conducting tests and explorations of in-store business in some cities. Public information shows that in 2008, Alibaba fully acquired Koubei.com. In 2009, Alibaba upgraded its "Greater Taobao" strategy, and Koubei.com was merged into Taobao. On April 2, 2018, Alibaba fully acquired Ele.me. In October of the same year, Alibaba announced the official establishment of a local life service company, which was formed by the merger of the two major businesses of Ele.me and Koubei. Rolling back the clock to 2013, at that time, Alibaba invested in Autonavi and obtained a 28% stake. Immediately following 2014, Alibaba completed the full acquisition of Autonavi for 1.1 billion US dollars. After the acquisition was completed, Autonavi delisted from Nasdaq and gradually integrated into Alibaba's ecosystem. At that time, the acquisition of Autonavi was also regarded as a key move for Alibaba to lay out the mobile Internet and O2O markets. According to multiple media reports, on March 22, 2023, Autonavi held an internal meeting and announced the official merger with Ele.me's in-store business (formerly Koubei) under Alibaba's local life services division. In the future, all the local life in-store businesses under Alibaba will be uniformly integrated into Autonavi. Alibaba's financial report for the first quarter and the full year of 2023 disclosed that in June 2022, the average daily active users of Autonavi exceeded 120 million. In terms of the local life business, Alibaba has repeatedly mentioned the overall performance of its in-store business in its financial reports. As mentioned in the third-quarter financial report of fiscal year 2024, the revenue of the local life group increased by 13% year-on-year, and the overall orders increased by more than 20% year-on-year. The first-quarter financial report of fiscal year 2025 mentioned that the orders of Autonavi and Ele.me have increased, operational efficiency has improved, and business scale has expanded... Alibaba's third-quarter financial report for fiscal year 2025 released at the beginning of this year shows that Autonavi Map has made a significant breakthrough and achieved its first profit. On August 29th, Alibaba released its first-quarter financial report for the fiscal year 2026, which mentioned that for the three months ending June 30, 2025, the revenue of its "instant retail" business was 14.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, mainly due to the growth in order volume brought about by the launch of "Taobao Flash Purchase" at the end of April 2025. In the competition of local life in-store business, Meituan, as the defending champion, has a leading market share advantage. It is worth noting that on the very day the "Gaode Street Sweeping List" was released, Meituan officially announced that Dianping would "restart" quality food delivery. In Meituan's introduction, it is also mentioned that "large model empowerment" - it will use its self-developed large model for the B-end, combined with a vast amount of real evaluation data to analyze user needs, further eliminate non-real review data, and provide reliable decision-making for users with "AI+ real high scores". Zhang Yi, CEO and chief analyst of iiMedia Research, told China News Service and Jwnews that there are multiple factors contributing to Alibaba's current push into in-store business. On the one hand, the scale of China's local life consumption market is continuously expanding, while pure online business has actually reached a bottleneck period. Coupled with Meituan's "far ahead" in the local life service market and Douyin's share of the pie, Alibaba's move is not only to compete for market share but also to better develop its online moat. On the other hand, Autonavi has the advantages of high-frequency traffic and platform, which can activate the in-store business and have a good expectation and synergy effect. What advantages does Alibaba have in the face of market defenders? Zhang Yi believes that Alibaba's strength lies in its relatively comprehensive ecosystem, including payment, e-commerce, maps and other integrated systems, which can provide rich traffic entry points and user data for in-store business. For Alibaba, the future operational direction of its in-store business is of great significance. A previous report released by iiMedia Research predicted that the market size of online food delivery services would reach 1,746.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the scale of local life services would exceed 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. However, no matter how these Internet giants adjust their businesses, for consumers, getting benefits and convenience is what they care about most. As for the subsidies that consumers are concerned about, Ma Jihua said, "Subsidies are inevitable, but they will definitely be more precise and not be a flood of money." On the day the "Gaode Street Sweeping List" was released, Gaode announced the launch of the "Fireworks Good Store Support Plan", offering generous subsidies in three aspects to encourage users to consume in stores. In terms of transaction subsidies, Autonavi Map will issue 950 million yuan worth of consumption vouchers to encourage users to visit the Fireworks Good Store to experience high-quality services, including in-store coupons and discounts on signature dishes. All costs will be borne by the platform. The market involves risks. Please invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the individual user's specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this is at your own risk.
2025-09-10 -
View detailsGoldman Sachs also came to cool AI: AI adoption trend is slowing down.
According to a report released by Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, on September 8th, although investment in AI hardware is still accelerating, the growth rate of AI adoption by US enterprises has slowed down in the third quarter. The report also shows that the adoption rate of AI in industries such as finance and real estate has increased the most, while that in the education service sector has declined. In terms of the labor market, Goldman Sachs believes that the impact remains "mild", but job substitution has already emerged in areas such as technology, design and customer service. Since the last update, layoffs caused by AI have affected 10,375 workers. More worrying than the "slowdown in growth" revealed in the Goldman Sachs report is that the adoption rate of AI by large enterprises may have peaked and started to decline. This trend may indicate that after an initial period of enthusiastic attempts, large enterprises are entering a "period of technological disillusionment", beginning to reevaluate the practical value and integration challenges of AI tools. The fundamental reason why enterprises encounter obstacles in adopting AI might be found in the MIT report that triggered the market crash earlier. A report titled "The Generative AI Gap: The State of Business AI in 2025" found that as many as 95% of enterprises have a return of zero on their generative AI investments. Market panic may spread For investors, a series of signals, from Goldman Sachs '" slowdown in growth "to Apollo's" decline in adoption rate ", and then to MIT's revelation of the "zero return" predicament, clearly indicate that the commercialization path of AI is far more complex and lengthy than expected. Against the backdrop that the expected price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 index is still nearly one-third higher than the long-term average, investors need to shift their focus from the frenzied pursuit of technological breakthroughs to a cautious assessment of the actual implementation capabilities and profitability of enterprises. The market involves risks. Please invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the individual user's specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Any investment made based on this is at your own risk.
2025-09-09