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View detailsWill Trump Make History Again? White House Reportedly Considers Using Defense Production Act to Expand Refining Capacity
With global crude supply conditions deteriorating and political pressure from the midterm elections mounting, the U.S. government is considering subsidizing the refining industry to stabilize domestic fuel prices.According to sources, the White House is considering using the Defense Production Act to expand U.S. refining capacity. At a recent meeting between Trump and U.S. refiners, White House officials outlined the idea and discussed how to most effectively use federal support to increase refining capacity. No final decision has been made.The Defense Production Act is viewed as a last resort and has never been used to expand refining capacity. The act grants the U.S. president broad powers to allocate industrial resources and provide financial incentives to companies to expand production of materials deemed critical to national defense.The move is unusual and highlights the mounting pressure on the Trump administration before the November midterm elections to prove it can contain the impact of soaring fuel prices on consumers and businesses.Refining CrisisThe United States is one of the world's largest refining countries, with a vast network of refineries that can process millions of barrels of crude oil per day. But due to logistics bottlenecks and refining capacity reductions in other parts of the world, the average U.S. diesel price rose above $6 per gallon for the first time, and diesel inventories are now 13% below the five-year average. Gasoline prices also remain high.Data shows that U.S. refining capacity is already near full utilization at 98%, after staying above 95% for three consecutive months — the longest stretch since 2000. This also means the United States is hard-pressed to provide additional refining capacity to meet strong market demand.On the other hand, Phillips 66 estimated last month that about 7 million barrels per day of refining capacity in Asia and the Middle East is shut down, while another 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity is unavailable.The White House has repeatedly mentioned its desire to expand U.S. refining capacity in recent times. But refining executives have pointed out that federal funds would be better used to improve refinery efficiency or expand existing refineries rather than to finance new ones, because new refineries are more costly and time-consuming.Still, the United States has begun trying to build new refining capacity. American First Refining Company plans to build a refinery with a processing capacity of 168,000 barrels per day. The project, announced in March this year, would be the first new refinery built in the United States in nearly 50 years. It has received support from India's Reliance Industries, but it is not yet clear whether it will later receive support under the Defense Production Act.Notably, disclosures by the company and investors show that President Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., is a passive minority shareholder of American First Refining. In addition, Cantor Fitzgerald serves as the financial adviser to American First Refining, and Cantor Fitzgerald's founder, Howard Lutnick, is Trump's current commerce secretary.Reprinted from Cailian Press
2026-09-13 -
View detailsEnergy Crisis Suddenly Escalates! Saudi Arabia Preemptively Shuts Key Oil Pipeline After Attack
Saudi Arabia said on Friday (September 11) that it had closed its vital east-west oil pipeline as a precautionary measure after multiple drone attacks launched from Iraq. On Thursday (September 10) morning, multiple drones from Iraq attacked the east-west oil pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions of Saudi Arabia, triggering fires and causing partial damage, with several people injured in the attacks. Saudi Arabia has relied on this east-west pipeline to divert crude oil exports away from the Persian Gulf in response to disputes over the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline, with a daily capacity of 7 million barrels, runs across the kingdom to an export terminal on the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said last month that the east-west oil pipeline played a greater role than the release of emergency crude reserves in mitigating oil supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. The attack shows that Saudi Arabia's oil resources and its export capacity are facing growing threats as the Iran war continues. Sources said it was unclear how long it would take to repair the damage to the pipeline system. After the attack, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said emergency teams had been deployed to secure the pipeline and assess its condition, and further updates would be announced in due course. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry said Riyadh has decided not to take retaliatory action for now, in order to give the Iraqi government time to take measures. In a statement issued on Friday evening local time, Sabah al-Nu'man, spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, condemned the attack on Saudi Arabia and expressed opposition to any act that endangers Saudi security and stability or harms the brotherly relations between the two countries. The statement said that Iraqi Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Zaidi has ordered an urgent investigation into the details of the attack and the parties responsible behind it, and to hold those involved accountable in accordance with the law. He also stressed that the Iraqi government will not tolerate any activity that endangers Iraq's own security or its relations with friendly countries. As the conflict in the Middle East escalated, oil prices broke above $100 per barrel for the first time in months this week. After reports of the pipeline attack circulated on Thursday, oil prices trended higher again, with the week's gains exceeding 8%. The Saudi government said earlier this week that Yemen's Houthi group launched an attack on Saudi Arabia, striking energy facilities and other civilian assets, and injuring more than 70 people. Reprinted from Cailian Press.
2026-09-12 -
View detailsBehind Oil Prices Breaking $100: Houthi Rebels Launch Fierce Attacks on Saudi Arabia!
As oil prices once again break the $100 mark, the news rattling the crude market — beyond the mutual tanker attacks between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz — includes a more worrying development: Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are launching their largest assault in years against Saudi Arabia, pushing the conflict between the group and the kingdom to a new level.This week, the Houthi rebels targeted energy facilities and a military base in four Saudi cities. The strikes have not only raised the stakes in the Middle East's long-running conflict, but also dragged Saudi Arabia, which has spent years trying to extricate itself from the Yemeni crisis, back into the quagmire.Analysts noted that the attacks were carried out in waves starting in the early hours of Tuesday, injuring more than 70 people. While firefighters battled the blazes, some energy facilities suspended operations, indirectly pushing international oil prices above the $100-per-barrel threshold.(Satellite imagery shows black smoke rising around Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery)Although Saudi Arabia avoided the most intense attacks during the peak of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, this week's strikes have once again highlighted the grave threat posed by its battle-hardened foe entrenched deep in the rugged mountains along its southern border.Neil Quilliam, associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) in the UK, said: "The Houthis' strikes on these cities expose Saudi Arabia's vulnerability and show that it risks being drawn further into the conflict, entirely against its will. The synchronized attacks on multiple cities fully demonstrate the Houthis' growing military capability."Saudi Oil Exports Take a Major HitBefore these attacks, the Houthis had been repeatedly hitting tankers in the Red Sea in recent weeks and had launched a fresh offensive against Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces. This not only broke the ceasefire agreement reached in 2022, but also reignited the flames of war.The military campaign has directly affected Saudi Arabia's ability to transport crude oil. In addition to attacking tankers, the Houthis have threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the lifeline through which Saudi Arabia pipes crude to its west coast for export after Iran choked off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.According to data from Kpler, with both maritime chokepoints under threat, Saudi Arabia's tracked crude exports last month fell to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 13 years.Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry did not disclose which facilities were hit on Tuesday or provide details of the damage.Saudi Arabia has previously been less affected by Iranian fire, analysts said, partly because its vast territory extends beyond the range of Iran's short-range missiles, and partly because Riyadh has maintained diplomatic channels with Tehran and has actively sought to de-escalate tensions.However, the Houthi threat has always simmered along its southern border. During the earlier war against Israel, the Houthis largely stayed out of Iran's conflicts beyond launching several rounds of missiles and drones at Israel, and a four-year truce with Saudi Arabia was maintained. It was not until July this year that the situation deteriorated again. The Houthis announced a blockade on Saudi ports, harassed Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, and began targeting its energy facilities.Analysts believe the Houthis' provocations serve Iran's interests by driving up energy prices. Meanwhile, emboldened Houthi forces are also trying to force Saudi Arabia into economic concessions — including paying public-sector salaries in Houthi-controlled areas, sharing oil revenues from Yemeni government-controlled regions, and paying compensation for war damages.Saudi Arabia, however, views these demands as a form of disguised extortion. Analysts said the kingdom has spent months arming and training Yemeni government forces in preparation for a possible escalation.The Houthis, for their part, accused Saudi Arabia on Tuesday of launching more than 120 airstrikes on Yemen since the weekend, claiming that one strike hit a prison and killed inmates. Houthi-controlled media later said Saudi Arabia carried out a fresh round of airstrikes on Wednesday.Mohammed Albasha, founder of U.S.-based risk consultancy Basha Report, said, "This is the beginning of an all-out war, destined to be a prolonged war of attrition. There will be no quick victory. All parties have been preparing for years."National Security Has Become Saudi Arabia's Top PriorityIn any case, the escalation of hostilities poses a huge risk to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is pushing ahead with an ambitious national development plan.After the Houthis ousted the Yemeni government in 2015, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was instrumental in forging the Arab coalition's military intervention in Yemen's civil war. However, Saudi Arabia soon became bogged down, spending tens of billions of dollars while facing widespread international condemnation over civilian casualties caused by coalition airstrikes.Facing near-daily missile and drone attacks from the Houthis at the time, Saudi Arabia's national modernization blueprint was severely disrupted, prompting the Crown Prince to seek a way out of the conflict. Although most missiles were intercepted, the ones that got through still struck key nodes such as energy facilities and airports, severely damaging Saudi Arabia's image as a regional hub.At the same time, the anti-Houthi camp has been fragmented by rival factions and complex interests, and has never been able to effectively weaken Houthi control over Yemen's capital, Sanaa.Analysts noted that if Saudi Arabia is drawn into another prolonged conflict, its ability to attract foreign investment will be severely weakened, in turn hampering the advancement of its national transformation plan.Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, the Houthis have disrupted Red Sea shipping for nearly two years, despite multiple rounds of U.S. bombing."If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait faces a real blockade, Saudi Arabia will be blocked on both its eastern and western fronts, putting it in an extremely passive position," Quilliam said. "Shifting crude exports from the east coast to the west coast was Saudi Arabia's safety valve, and now that safety valve is itself in jeopardy."He added: "Saudi Arabia's core focus will now have to shift entirely to national security."Reprinted from Cailian Press
2026-09-10 -
View detailsBessent Throws Down the Gauntlet to Yen Bears: "I'm the House Now. Bring It On!"
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a challenge to yen bears on Tuesday (September 8), signaling his push for a stronger yen and asserting that his current position gives him an inherent "informational edge" in market analysis. "Whenever someone says, 'Oh, the Treasury Secretary is taking a risk'—well, this is exactly the situation I've dreamed of. I hold the advantage of information asymmetry," Bessent said Tuesday at an event at Southern Methodist University in Texas. "I'm the house now, so when we intervene in the yen, I have a fairly deep understanding of what the Japanese, the Bank of Japan, and Japanese policymakers will do," Bessent said. "If you want to bet against me, bring it on," Bessent said boldly. Recalling his experience in market intervention, Bessent cited the joint U.S.-Japan yen purchase on July 31. It was the first joint intervention by the two countries in 15 years, aimed at supporting the battered yen. For the United States, the yen's depreciation had eroded the trade advantages from Trump's signature tariff policies, and the resulting sell-off in Japanese government bonds could also spill over into U.S. Treasury yields—key reasons for Washington's rare coordinated intervention. It is understood that the U.S. Treasury sold euros from its reserves during the joint operation and used the proceeds to buy yen. Bessent said at the time that the yen was "seriously undervalued" and its volatility was excessive, which was unhealthy for the market. He was also photographed by media writing a "to-do item" in his notebook: buy ¥5 billion to ¥10 billion worth of yen. Although the yen's gains narrowed in the sessions following the intervention—partly because traders pointed to the Treasury's limited firepower in buying foreign exchange—the dollar-yen rate has recently moved sharply again, leaving Bessent looking "fully confident" once more. Market data showed the dollar-yen pair hit a low of 152.87 on Tuesday, the lowest level since February 18. In his career, Bessent, a "Soros disciple," is clearly no stranger to the foreign exchange market. Bessent joined Soros Fund Management in 1991. He was one of the key figures behind the fund's bet that the pound would collapse after detecting obvious weakness in the UK property market. That legendary "attack on the pound" made Soros famous overnight, earning $1 billion in one go and earning the industry title of "the man who broke the Bank of England"—and Bessent played an undeniably crucial role in that campaign. Between 2011 and 2015, Bessent served as Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund Management and at one point ran the firm's day-to-day operations. In 2013, he earned acclaim again for successfully betting on a weaker yen. Bessent left in 2015 to found hedge fund Key Square. The name Key Square derives from the chess term "key square," and the fund has focused on macro investing for nearly a decade, using economic and geopolitical information to predict macro market trends. Reprinted from Cailianshe
2026-09-09 -
View detailsFamous Black Swan Fund Founder Predicts: AI Boom Can Last a While, But a Big US Stock Market Crash Is Coming Soon!
One of Wall Street's most bearish hedge fund managers, the founder of the "Black Swan Fund" who specializes in profiting from tail risks, recently warned that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom may continue for a while, but a massive crash is coming soon.Spitznagel was a trader and a protégé of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller "The Black Swan." He made billions of dollars during the 2008 stock market crash, the 2015 flash crash, and the early 2020 COVID-19 outbreak.Universa, based in Miami, is a hedge fund with $20 billion in assets that specializes in guarding against "black swan" shocks — rare, high-impact events that shake markets. It uses financial instruments such as credit default swaps, stock options and other derivatives to gain value during extreme market turmoil. Since its founding in 2007, its average return on capital has exceeded 100%.Generally speaking, investors treat such tail-risk funds as insurance, because they cost little to maintain, but the payoffs are huge when disaster strikes. Universa proved this in 2020, becoming one of the big winners amid the market chaos triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.Mark Spitznagel, founder of black swan fund Universa Investments, shared his stock market predictions in a recent interview. He noted signs of excessive debt and "arrogant huge bets," but said he did not see any signs that could trigger a stock market crash.He then pointed straight to the crux of the problem, saying that because the full impact of recent interest rate hikes has not yet materialized, the economy is "becoming unstable." He was referring to the fact that the lagged effects of aggressive rate hikes in 2022-2023 have not fully shown up, and the economy will eventually collapse due to high borrowing costs. At that point, the Fed's easing will turn into panic rescue, becoming the trigger for a crash. At this moment, the Fed is caught in a dilemma between waiting and raising rates.Spitznagel also noted that renowned short-seller Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short," has good reason to worry about hyperscale AI companies' overinvestment in chips and data centers, round-trip financing transactions, and hidden liabilities. However, he believes Burry's timing is wrong."In the next few months, I'll be the most pessimistic person you'll hear," he added, "but I'm not right now."Spitznagel predicts that "another massive, risk-on, manic rally will occur in high-risk investment areas.""But once this rally ends — and that could happen soon — I think we'll see a crash bigger than any we've seen in our lifetime," he then warned.In previous interviews, he also said bluntly that current US stock market valuations and investor sentiment are in an extremely manic state. After one final surge, a super crash of 1929 proportions, possibly with a decline of up to 80%, is likely to come.Reprinted from Cailianshe
2026-09-08 -
View detailsStorage Shortage May Intensify Next Year! Goldman Sachs: Korean Stocks Could Have Nearly 80% Upside
Goldman Sachs strategists are sticking to their bullish price target for Korean stocks, saying investors underestimate how long artificial intelligence (AI) will boost the country's memory chip makers. Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist, maintained his target of 12,000 points for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) — implying nearly 80% upside from current levels. When he made the forecast three months ago, it was one of the most bullish targets on Wall Street. In a recent interview, Moe said he remains committed to the target, with the supporting logic being that corporate earnings will deliver. The market is underestimating the duration of the current earnings upcycle. Amid concerns over whether big tech's AI spending spree can last, combined with a sharp rise in Korean stock market volatility, the Kospi has tumbled 27% since hitting an all-time high in June. Strong quarterly results from chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have done little to boost their share prices. However, the global race to build data centers has led to a severe memory chip shortage, pushing prices higher. Moe expects this dynamic to intensify further by 2027. He said U.S. big tech spending is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion next year, well above the earlier forecast of $800 billion. Moe said these hyperscale cloud computing companies must keep investing even if they are not profitable for now, which is positive for memory chips because it drives computing demand, and computing has enormous demand for memory. He expects Kospi constituents' earnings growth to be around 360% this year, slowing to about 35% by 2027. He added that the market already fully understands that earnings growth will eventually begin to moderate. Moe also acknowledged that competition from Chinese companies such as ChangXin Memory Technologies, as well as potential political headwinds to U.S. data center construction, are potential risk factors. But he said fundamentals remain favorable for advanced memory chip makers over the next few years. He said his Kospi target is based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 times. The index currently trades at just 5.3 times forward earnings, roughly half its seven-year average. Moe said if Korean companies deliver on his earnings expectations, his 12,000-point target for the Kospi is "actually not as crazy as it seems." On Monday, the KOSPI index surged on strong performance in semiconductor stocks, rising 3.34% at the open and trading up 2.98% at 6,886.73 points as of press time. As of press time, SK Hynix was up nearly 6% and Samsung Electronics nearly 4%. One of the main drivers of the strong rally in chip stocks is that OpenAI's latest model release has convinced investors that AI-driven memory demand will persist. OpenAI officially released its new flagship AI model, GPT-6 Astra, on September 3, calling it a major milestone toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). Republished from Cailian Press
2026-09-07 -
View detailsU.S. Nonfarm Payrolls 'Blowout' Has a Bizarre Twist: 98% of New Jobs Went to Women!
Friday's closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report was a "blowout," and perhaps one group deserves special thanks: women...According to an industry analysis of data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, women accounted for 158,000 of the 162,000 new jobs added during the month, or roughly 98%.Men accounted for only 4,000 of the new net jobs, meaning their contribution to overall employment growth was roughly one-fortieth that of women...The nonprofit organization The Economic Security Project was the first to point out this anomaly in Friday's data.Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said, with Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, the gap between female and male employment has climbed to unprecedented levels. "We're in the midst of a transformation," Ullrich said. "It's happening right before our eyes."Are Women Alone Shouldering the U.S. Jobs Recovery?Friday's report again showed that in an otherwise lackluster U.S. jobs market, women are building strong momentum. Analysts also said that women's recent employment performance has been better than men's, partly due to the industry mix driving labor market expansion.The healthcare industry, seen as the engine of labor market growth over the past year or more, continued to add jobs in August. More than four-fifths of employees in the industry are women.In addition, the jobs market in local government and education rebounded strongly in August, adding 42,000 jobs, about a quarter of the total net increase. Women made up nearly three-quarters of employment in education, training, and library positions.But Ullrich noted that Friday's report also showed women gaining strong employment momentum in industries traditionally seen as male-dominated, such as manufacturing.In terms of unemployment, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for women in August was 3.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier. The male unemployment rate, meanwhile, jumped to 4.4%, matching the level of August 2025.However, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted in a social media post on Friday that monthly data broken down by gender can be volatile. She suggested focusing on longer-term trends related to gender.Still, this heavily female-skewed month provides another data point for the broad transformation underway in the U.S. labor market: Earlier this year, women surpassed men in total nonfarm payrolls for the third time. Unlike the previous two occasions — during the financial crisis and on the eve of the pandemic — this latest shift appears less crisis-driven and more structural: even as male-dominated industries like manufacturing stagnate, female-dominated industries such as healthcare and leisure and hospitality continue to absorb workers."One of the main drivers of the post-pandemic labor market is again healthcare, where women are highly represented," Long noted. She added that women also earn more college degrees than men, putting them in a relatively favorable position to capture growth share in certain professional sectors.Of course, a more pessimistic reading is that because women tend to earn less than men, a higher share of women in employment could mean businesses are hiring more for low-wage positions. Ullrich noted that women are more likely to hold multiple jobs, so some of the employment growth may come from workers juggling multiple jobs and struggling to keep up."You might look at these numbers and say, 'Great, women are powering the workforce,'" Ullrich said. But "I don't think this is necessarily good news for women overall." 'Blowout' Payrolls Fuel Rate Hike ExpectationsIn any case, the strong showing of women in the jobs market ultimately helped push Friday's August nonfarm payrolls far above expectations — 162,000 new jobs added during the month, more than triple economists' forecasts.But for markets, the "good news" in the data also turned out to be "bad news" for several financial sectors — traders quickly began pricing in a higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike.According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rate futures traders on Friday priced in a near 60% probability of a September rate hike, up from 49.4% on Thursday. Meanwhile, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 7.6 basis points to 4.41%, the 10-year yield approached the 4.80% level again, and all three major U.S. stock indexes came under pressure on Friday.The market's concern is that a strong labor market gives the Fed more reason to focus on curbing inflation and to raise rates in September.Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said, "The final nonfarm payrolls figure came in at more than triple expectations, which undoubtedly heightens market confusion about the Fed's next moves, mainly because the Fed has previously said its focus is on inflation, not the payrolls data. Now that payrolls have substantially beaten expectations, I think this increases the likelihood that the Fed will at least consider raising rates.""The upside surprise in payrolls could heighten concerns about a rate hike," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.She added, however, that the final decision still hinges on next week's U.S. August CPI report. Zentner said that if next week's inflation data comes in below expectations, the Fed may be comfortable looking past the strong jobs numbers and holding the current federal funds rate steady. Conversely, the surprising strength in the August labor market gives policymakers another reason to raise rates.From Cailian Press
2026-09-06 -
View details"Biggest IPO in History" Timeline Shifts; Anthropic Reportedly to Start Roadshow in Mid-October at the Earliest
According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter on Friday, Anthropic, the leading U.S. artificial intelligence company and developer of the Claude chatbot, is expected to begin pitching its initial public offering (IPO) as early as mid-October, and complete the listing a few days before the U.S. midterm elections in November.People familiar with the matter said Anthropic had originally expected to make its IPO prospectus public as early as next week, a key step in launching the final phase of the listing, but it is now expected to release the prospectus in late September.However, the people also cautioned that plans, including the timeline, could still change.This adjustment means Anthropic's IPO plan has been delayed.In the course of advancing an IPO, companies often adjust their listing timetable based on market conditions, regulatory reviews, and other preparatory work, so such changes are not uncommon.People familiar with the matter said companies typically leave several weeks between analyst meetings and the public release of the IPO prospectus, but since analysts are already very familiar with Anthropic, the time window between these two steps is expected to be shorter.The people also said that as part of the IPO process, Anthropic is seeking to finalize a $15 billion revolving credit facility. Once completed, analysts, including those from banks participating in the financing, are expected to meet with the company.The Biggest IPO in HistoryAccording to earlier reports, Anthropic plans to raise more than $100 billion in its IPO, targeting a valuation of $2 trillion. If the IPO is successful, Anthropic will surpass the record set by SpaceX in June of $85.7 billion raised and a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, becoming the largest IPO in global history.This, one of the most closely watched IPOs in history, will also be a major test of the public market's willingness to accept the fast-growing artificial intelligence industry.Meanwhile, other AI companies, including OpenAI, may also go public. Elon Musk's SpaceX went public in June this year, setting a valuation record of $1.77 trillion.According to people familiar with the matter, banks including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup are working with Anthropic on the IPO.Before Anthropic's epic IPO, a series of data released recently shows the company's financial condition is growing explosively.According to media reports last month citing people familiar with the matter, Anthropic internally expects its 2028 revenue to reach approximately $190 billion to $200 billion.The company also disclosed to investors that as of the end of July, its annualized revenue had exceeded $65 billion, an increase of about 38% from $47 billion in May this year.In addition, according to documents recently seen by industry insiders, Anthropic revealed in a pitch to potential investors that its second-quarter operating revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a massive increase of about 14 times compared with the same period last year.Reprinted from Cailian Press
2026-09-05 -
View detailsGold Shines Again! Societe Generale Joins Big Banks' Bullish Camp: A Prime Opportunity to Re-Enter the Gold Market Has Arrived
As the gold market once again tests the initial resistance level of $4,500 per ounce, one international investment bank believes that now is a good time to return to the gold market. The bank expects gold prices to gradually recover from a multi-month correction. Société Générale said in its latest market report that after reducing gold positions in the first half of the year, the precious metal is once again showing appeal. "After a sharp correction triggered by the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, gold has recently rebounded to around $4,500 per ounce. Meanwhile, volatility has normalized, speculative positioning has recovered to above the two-year average, and the put/call ratio for GLD (gold ETF) has fallen to a six-month low, indicating that bullish sentiment is reviving," analysts said. Although gold still faces headwinds from high interest rates and a stronger dollar, Societe Generale said that financial markets have largely priced in the repricing of the Fed's hawkish stance, creating a more favorable risk/reward profile for the precious metal. The bank said that it remains strategically "bullish" on gold and views it as an important tool for hedging monetary and policy uncertainty. Societe Generale noted that the gold market has undergone a clear paradigm shift since 2022. Despite positive real interest rates, gold prices remain near historic highs, clearly diverging from the lower price levels implied by traditional models. The bank believes that continued central bank buying, de-dollarization trends, geopolitical uncertainty, and sovereign debt concerns are providing a higher floor for gold prices, thereby limiting the downside impact from high real interest rates. The bank also noted that since mid-last year, market expectations have shifted from continuing to price in monetary policy easing to debating whether the Fed will raise rates another one or two times. This change has pushed two-year U.S. Treasury yields back above 4% and supported the dollar. However, despite these traditional headwinds, gold prices remain significantly higher than mid-2025 levels. "In our view, it would take a much larger inflation shock and a much more aggressive Fed response to trigger another major repricing in rates," analysts said. "With most of the hawkish adjustment in financial markets already digested, gold's downside risks appear increasingly limited." Persistent inflation is another reason Societe Generale recommends investors make strategic allocations to gold. The bank noted that a new round of U.S. tariffs, accelerated AI and infrastructure investment, energy price volatility, and persistently large fiscal deficits in advanced economies are creating a more inflationary environment than financial markets currently anticipate. Furthermore, analysts believe continued underlying demand for gold is also providing support. Although gold ETF inflows have slowed notably this year, they remain in net positive territory overall. Meanwhile, declining volatility is enhancing gold's appeal to long-term reserve managers. "With speculative demand weakening while official sector buying remains strong, central banks are increasingly becoming the key anchor for the gold market," the bank's analysts said. Societe Generale added that declining volatility itself has historically been an important buy signal for gold, and continued central bank demand should also provide a solid floor for prices. Societe Generale's renewed bullish turn on gold comes as prices attempt to recover from the sharp selloff that dominated trading in the spring and early summer. Societe Generale Joins the Bullish Camp Currently, the gold bull camp is growing increasingly large. Recently, several investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, and UBS, have expressed bullish views on gold. Goldman Sachs Research now expects gold prices to rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves. Christopher Louney, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets, recently said that gold's recent price action indicates geopolitical instability, global de-dollarization, and concerns over dollar depreciation are once again in focus, and gold is now ready to move toward the "5,000 mark." UBS recently said that Fed Chair Warsh's recent hawkish signals have raised market expectations for a September rate hike, but gold's medium-term fundamentals remain unchanged. The bank expects gold to rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of September 2027. After taking profits and stepping aside in May, Schroders' analysts recently announced they have raised their outlook on gold and re-established positions in the precious metal. In its latest multi-asset outlook report, Schroders upgraded gold to positive, citing strong structural demand, improved speculative positioning, and ongoing concerns over inflation, sovereign debt, and currency stability. On Thursday, international gold prices rose nearly 2% after Fed Governor Waller said he would support holding rates steady if data continue to show easing inflation pressures, prompting traders to lower September rate hike expectations. Spot gold closed up 1.97% at $4,472.86 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled up 2.8% at $4,539.90. Republished from Cailian Press
2026-09-04 -
View detailsGlobal stock market rally to pause? Goldman Sachs: Returns will decline over the next year!
Still immersed in the stock market feast driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom? A top stock strategist at Goldman Sachs has issued a fresh warning: the pace of stock market gains over the next 12 months will be slower.Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer said in a recent interview, "We should acknowledge that the S&P 500 and other global stock markets have delivered remarkable returns over the past year and so far this year. Therefore, we have already earned quite substantial returns. We expect future returns to decline."Oppenheimer has been highly forward-looking in his stock market forecasts for years and has many loyal followers on Wall Street. In early March, he adopted a cautious stance on the market, and later that month, stocks indeed fell to their yearly lows."In most cases, we expect returns over the next 12 months to be in the mid-to-high single digits, below the levels we have seen across regions over the past 12 months. But as long as economic growth continues, returns will remain relatively decent. That is our expectation," he said.He added, however, that it is certain that after the S&P 500's 12% gain so far in 2026, various factors point to a more subdued market picture before the end of the year.First, the global sell-off in government bonds is intensifying, with a severity enough to worry all investors, big and small. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield — the world's most important interest rate and the benchmark for pricing everything from mortgages and auto loans to credit cards — recently hit its highest level since 2023. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield is also near its highest level in two decades.What makes this moment particularly worrying is that the rise in bond yields is happening globally.Japan's 10-year government bond yield just broke above 3%, a fresh high since 1996. The UK's 10-year gilt yield has just reached its highest level since mid-2007. Germany's 10-year Bund yield has hit its highest level since the peak of the European debt crisis in 2011."So far this year, stocks have been able to ignore these fluctuations. However, as we have seen in the past, higher yields don't matter to stocks... until they do," Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley wrote in a note.Analysts point out that when bond markets in the U.S., Japan, the UK, and Germany sell off simultaneously, it is not a coincidence — it is a signal. It shows that global investors are losing confidence in governments' ability to manage debt, control inflation, and maintain sound fiscal conditions.Meanwhile, oil prices have again surged above $90 per barrel, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and their impact on the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp rise in energy costs is directly rippling through the economy, pushing up prices for transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing inputs. In recent weeks, prices for commodities such as corn and sugar have soared."In short, rising oil prices have pushed up yields, and higher yields have put pressure on stocks. Until this dynamic ends — and it has ended multiple times in the past — we can expect continued market weakness, led by growth/cyclical sectors," said Tom Essaye, founder of research firm Sevens Report Research.Reprinted from Cailian Press
2026-09-03